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CIMMS 2012 Annual Report

Executive Summary Listing of Activities during FY2012 Under the New Cooperative Agreement

Weather Radar Research and Development

At the very center of NOAA’s mission are the objectives of achieving a “reduced loss of life, property, and disruption from high-impact weather events”, “improved transportation efficiency and safety”, and “improved freshwater resource management” (NOAA’ s Next Generation Strategic Plan, Long-Term Goal: Weather Ready Nation, pp. 10-14, December 2010). The weather systems involved include severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, tropical storms and hurricanes, and winter cyclones. Those systems produce the high intensity precipitation, strong winds, flooding, lightning strikes, freezing rain, and large snow accumulations that damage property, cost lives, disrupt transportation, and cause other economic dislocation. Reduction of these adverse impacts can result from the availability and use of accurate forecasts of the above weather systems and their associated phenomena, for future periods ranging from several days down to a few minutes. One of the essential starting points for developing those forecasts is the detailed observation of the present state of the atmosphere.

For almost 60 years, remote sensing via weather radar has been a vital source of the necessary observations. The present national weather radar system (WSR-88D) uses reflectivity and Doppler velocity measurements to document the location and movement of the above weather systems, and indicate the time evolution of their precipitation intensity and wind strength. However, this radar system soon will be as old (30 years) as the chronologically and technologically ancient system (WSR-57) that it replaced in 1988. This situation has two crucial implications for NOAA’s continued pursuit of its above objectives to achieve a “reduced loss of life, property, and disruption from high impact weather events”, “improved transportation efficiency and safety”, and “improved freshwater management”. First, NOAA and its partners must complete the recently initiated development of the new Multi-Function Phased Array Radar (MPAR) system that will replace the WSR-88D and is incorporating all relevant technological advances during the last 20+ years. Second, since completion of this development activity will require another 7-12 years at its current rate of progression, the ongoing current WSR- 88D upgrades (especially Dual-Polarization) must be brought to fruition as soon as possible.

During the past year, research was conducted at NSSL on:

Stormscale and Mesoscale Modeling Research and Development

Research and development for stormscale and mesoscale modeling are essential for NOAA’s aforementioned objectives. Use of stormscale and mesoscale models is a major ingredient of the forecasting and nowcasting procedures for high impact weather events, and is expected to grow in the future. The initialization of those prediction models is depending increasingly on wind and other observations from the current weather radar systems. This dependence also is anticipated to expand and therefore is a principal motivation for the weather radar research and development proposed above -- to improve the initialization and hence performance of the prediction models. At the center of this radar-modeling interface is the manner in which radar data are ingested into the models, especially in combination with measurements from other platforms (e.g., satellite, rawinsonde, surface) via “assimilation” procedures. In addition to their predictive roles, stormscale and mesoscale models also are used extensively in a research mode to understand better the behavior of weather systems on those scales. The atmospheric processes that receive particular attention in these simulations include mesoscale dynamics, convective initiation, cloud dynamics and microphysics, and the precipitation process. Also investigated is the sensitivity of the simulation results to the data assimilation procedures. The ultimate goal of such stormscale and mesoscale simulation research is to improve the performance of the operational forecasting models.

During the past year, research was conducted on:

Forecast and Warning Improvements Research and Development

It is under this theme that the results of the research and development from the two preceding themes are integrated and converted into improved weather forecasts and warnings disseminated to the U.S. public. The ultimate outcome is to provide NWS forecasters routinely with enhanced information on which to base their forecasts. Two areas of highly innovative activity, anchored within the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT), dominate this effort – the Experimental Forecasting Program and the Experimental Warning Program. Activity within this theme also is dominated by the training activities of CIMMS scientists at the Warning Decision Training Branch.

During the past year, research and training was conducted on:

HWT Forecasting Experiments:

HWT Warning Experiments:

Additional NSSL Projects:

NWSTC Projects:

CAPS Project:

Impacts of Climate Change Related to Extreme Weather Events

Here, we are concerned with the regional and global climate system context of mesoscale and stormscale weather variability, and especially the functioning of what now is termed the weather-climate interface. The genesis and trends of extreme events are of particular interest, given society’s current concerns about climate maintenance and change. The optimum path forward will require an appropriate combination of observational (using fine resolution data) and modeling (emphasizing convection) research. This theme also addresses the NOAA objective of achieving “improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts” and “assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, services, and stewardship decisions” (NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan, Long-Term Goal: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation, pp. 5- 10, December 2010).

During the past year, research was conducted on:

Societal and Socioeconomic Impacts of High Impact Weather Systems

This theme contributes to several of NOAA’s objectives - - providing “mitigation and adaptation choices supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services”; achieving “a climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions”; and furnishing “services meeting the evolving demands of regional stakeholders” (NOAA’s Next-Generation Strategic Plan, Long- Term Goal: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation, pp. 5-10, December 2010). Much of the effort here is motivated and fed by results obtained under the Forecast and Warning Improvements and Extreme Weather-Climate Change Impacts themes that, in turn, are built around the core of the more basic Weather Radar and Stormscale/Mesoscale Modeling Research and Development. The goal here is to facilitate the mitigation (enhancement) of the adverse (beneficial) social and socioeconomic impacts of high- impact weather systems and regional/seasonal-scale climate variations. Thus, our contributions to this theme are part of NOAA’s crucial ultimate interface with society, and therefore will reflect the continuing and increasing involvement of OU social scientists.

During the past year, research was conducted on:

Public Affairs and Outreach

CIMMS education and outreach activities help NOAA achieve its objectives of providing “an engaged and educated public with an improved capacity to make scientifically informed environmental decisions” and making “full and effective use of international partnerships and policy leadership to achieve NOAA’s mission objectives” (NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan, Engagement Enterprise Objective, pp. 30-32, December 2010). CIMMS location and role within the OU-NOAA National Weather Center (NWC) has embedded it within a wide-ranging and ongoing set of education and outreach activities that will draw continuously on the knowledge developed within the five above research themes. Those activities (a) involve local and national outreach to the general public, (b) extend across all levels of formal education, and (c) provide post- doctoral and professional development opportunities for individuals in careers related to the atmospheric sciences.

During the past year, public affairs and outreach activities included:

Awards

The following awards were bestowed in the past fiscal year:

 

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