Forecast Improvements

Transfer research findings into knowledge, technology, and training that can be used to improve forecasts and warnings, supporting NOAA’s goal to serve society’s need for weather and water information

The primary goal of this original thematic area is to accelerate the transfer of research knowledge and skills between the academic and NOAA operational mesoscale meteorological communities to both improve the design and utilization of mesoscale weather observing systems and improve mesoscale weather prediction and warning.

Research on forecast and warning improvements will lead to:

New and innovative applications, methods and technologies that streamline forecast and warning decision processes and practices and assist forecasters in the detection, diagnosis, and prediction of severe weather
Quick and successful science and technology transfer into NWS operations
Forecasters trained in the latest warning decision making techniques
New and innovative ways to disseminate and display weather information for the general public

Research funded under this theme in fiscal year 2007:

Convective Weather Research: Predicting the Longevity of Mesoscale Convective Systems	Coniglio (primary – CIMMS at NSSL), Brooks, Corfidi, Weiss
Objectives: Examine a large data set of observed proximity soundings to identify predictors of MCS dissipation and to improve our understanding of MCS environments; the ultimate goal of this work is to develop forecast tools that provide probabilistic guidance on the maintenance of MCSs with a focus on the 3-12 hour time scale, which could benefit Day 1 Severe Weather Outlooks, Mesoscale Discussions, and the issuance of Severe Weather Watches at SPC and short-term forecasts issued by local NWS forecast offices. [more]
Severe Weather Warning Research and Application Development: Dual- Polarimetric WSR-88D Development	Scharfenberg (primary – CIMMS at NSSL), Manross
Objectives: Provide technical coordination with NOAA and external agencies regarding the upcoming dualpolarimetric upgrade to the national WSR-88D network. [more]
Investigation into the Use of Warning Decision Support Systems for Improving Hazardous Weather Detection, Warnings, and Forecasts: FSI and WDSS-II	Lakshmanan (primary – CIMMS at NSSL), Kerr, Brogden, Toomey
Objectives: Build an interactive Four-dimensional Storm-cell Investigator (FSI) to better visualize radar data in realtime; implement the FSI on the National Weather Service's operational AWIPS system, verify and validate the new techniques; explore the processes and methods that forecasters use to analyze data and to develop research prototype systems that may contribute to ongoing CIMMS and NSSL research on the analysis of hazardous weather and the weather warning decision process; develop better algorithms to identify severe weather signatures or precursor signatures. [more]
Investigation of Synoptic and Mesoscale Meteorological Processes Associated with Hazardous Weather: Investigate Methods to Provide Improved Forecasts of Near Surface Conditions through the Use of Ensemble Forecasts	Stensrud (primary - NSSL), Yussouf
Objectives: Evaluate the performance of the Bias-Corrected Ensemble (BCE) forecasting system and the Binning Technique during the cool season; investigate methods for further improvement of the performance of these two post-processing techniques. [more]
Investigation of Synoptic and Mesoscale Meteorological Processes Associated with Hazardous Weather: Measuring the Evolution of Tropical Waves over West Africa into Tropical Storms over the Eastern Atlantic	Douglas (primary – NSSL), Murillo, Mejia
Objectives: Determine whether characteristics of tropical waves propagating over West Africa during August and September can be used to determine which of these waves will develop rapidly into hurricanes over the eastern Atlantic - the so-called "Cape Verde storms". [more]
Research on Integration and Use of Multi-Sensor Information in Weather Forecasting: Science and Technology Infusion	Stumpf (primary – CIMMS at NWS/MDL), S. Smith
Objectives: Work with CIMMS/NSSL scientists to develop multiple-sensor severe weather warning applications and display systems and transfer that technology to NWS operational systems; maintain an Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS) Development Environment at CIMMS/NSSL; facilitate the development of the Hazardous Weather Testbed – Experimental Warning Program at the new National Weather Center in Norman.[more]
Warning Decision-Making Research and Training: Advanced Warning Operations Course (AWOC)	Decker, Hoggard, Lemon, Mohamad Said, Morris, Schlatter, Schultz, Sessing, Wood, X. Yu,
Objectives: Improve understanding of warning related issues, helping the NWS achieve GPRA goals 1-7. [more]
Warning Decision-Making Research and Training: AWIPS and WSR-88D Improvements	Decker, Morris, Wood, Hoggard, NWS/WDTB collaborators
Objectives: Improve understanding of warning-related issues. [more]
Warning Decision-Making Research and Training: NOAA’s NWS Weather Event Simulator	Decker, Hoggard, Magsig, Mohamed Said, Morris, NWS/WDTB collaborators
Objectives: Develop simulation capabilities to enhance NWS warning decision making training and research; foster collaboration between NOAA and non-NOAA agencies using the Weather Event Simulator. [more]
Warning Decision-Making Research and Training: Distance Learning Operations Course (DLOC)	Decker, Hoggard, Lemon, Mohamad Said, Morris, Wood, X. Yu, NWS/WDTB collaborators
Objectives: Investigate warning decision making issues with NWS forecasters; evoke a better understanding of the warning decision making process; and transfer that knowledge to warning decision makers to improve field performance. [more]
Warning Decision-Making Research and Training: Training and Research Toolkit	Mohamad Said, Hoggard, X. Yu, NWS/WDTB collaborators
Objectives: Provide an advanced, effective and flexible platform and environment for interactive learning and research; design and develop techniques and tools that can be transferred to the NWS community for operational forecasting or research, and for use in a simulated operational environment. [more]
Warning Decision-Making Research and Training: Real-Time System	Mohamad Said, Decker, Hoggard, X. Yu, NWS/WDTB collaborators
Objectives: Investigate warning decision making issues with real time events; evoke a better understanding of the warning decision making process; and transfer that knowledge to warning decision makers to improve performance. [more]
Warning Decision-Making Research and Training: Department of Commerce and NOAA Distance Learning Training Development – The Nation’s Weather Enterprise	D. LaDue, Heinselman, Morris, Wood, NWS/WDTB collaborators
Objectives: Repurpose materials from a live workshop to create a distance education module that allows both public and private sector meteorologists to better understand the roles of each sector in the Nation's weather enterprise. [more]
Warning Decision-Making Research and Training: Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale Training	J. Murnan, Stumpf, Wood, NWS/WDTB collaborators
Objectives: Develop instructional material on the Enhanced Fujita-Scale training modules and the EFkit damage survey application. [more]
Warning Decision-Making Research and Training: Storm-Based Warnings	Morris, Wood, NWS/WDTB collaborators
Objectives: Improve understanding of warning-related issues; help NWS implement service changes. [more]
An Investigation of Communicating Weather Information Effectively using the Internet	Minton (primary – CIMMS at SRH), Kirkwood
Objectives: Investigate new applications to increase the capabilities of providing new digital services to the public; investigate enhancements to the back-end web applications, databases, and services that are the backbone of the Southern Region Headquarters web presence, now used within the overall Web Consolidation Project on three web farms; and study the usefulness and cost-effectiveness of new technologies. [more]
Advancing Science to Improve Knowledge of Mesoscale Hazardous Weather	Dean (CIMMS at SPC)
Objectives: Study research methodologies that can be used to verify predicted outcomes of meteorological phenomena; present research results to the meteorological community; assist SPC scientists and managers in science and technology transition efforts. [more]
Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE)	T. Smith (primary – CIMMS at NSSL), Manross, Scharfenberg, Witt, Ortega, Kolodziej, Legett, Riley, Irwin, Roberts
Objectives: Improve the verification of severe weather events in the United States through use of very high resolution (1 km) multi-sensor/multi-radar data, phased array radar, and verification phone calls, integrated within a geographic information system. [more]
Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Warning Program	T. Smith (primary – CIMMS at NSSL), Andra, Scharfenberg, Manross, Stumpf, Ortega, Heinselman, Adams, Priegnitz, Burgess, Witt, and many other NOAA staff
Objectives: Improve the nation's hazardous weather warning services by bringing together forecasters, researchers, trainers, developers, and user groups to test and evaluate new techniques, applications, observing platforms, and technologies. [more]
A Partnership to Develop, Conduct, and Evaluate Real-Time High- Resolution Ensemble and Deterministic Forecasts for Convective-Scale Hazardous Weather	Droegemeier (primary – School of Meteorology), Xue, Kong
Objectives: Apply cloud-resolving models to the explicit prediction of deep convection using deterministic and ensemble approaches; understand the tradeoffs in deterministic versus ensemble methodologies and the value of radar data in initializing convection-resolving models; and understand how convection-resolving forecasts can be utilized in operations as a move toward warn-on-forecast concepts. [more]
Evaluation of Synoptic-Scale Controls on Tornado Outbreaks	Leslie (primary – CIMMS at OU), Mercer, C. Shafer, Richman, Doswell
Objectives: Determine signals in synoptic scale data that can distinguish between tornado and non-tornado outbreaks; create fields to be used to initialize the WRF model for the prediction of tornado outbreaks. [more]
Cloud Radiative Impacts of Giant CCN	Y. Kogan (primary – CIMMS at OU), Mechem
Objectives: Demonstrate the radiative impact of drizzle using the new CIMMS parameterization of giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). [more]
Contribution to WRF Model Development by CAPS	Xue (primary – CAPS), Gao, Brewster, Hu, Liu
Objectives: Complete further revisions and testing of the generalized cloud analysis package within GSI for stratiform clouds (using GOES cloud top and METAR cloud data) and begin an initial treatment for convective clouds at the parameterized scale assimilating radar reflectivity. [more]
Tri-State Tornado Reanalysis	Doswell (primary – CIMMS at OU), Maddox, Johns, Burgess, Gilmore, Piltz, Hart
Objectives: Re-investigate the Tri-State tornado of 18 March 1925. [more]
Database of Tornadic and Nontornadic Severe Storm Outbreak Cases	Doswell (primary – CIMMS at OU), Thompson, Hart, Crosbie, Edwards
Objectives: Create a database of tornadic and nontornadic severe storm outbreak cases. [more]
Characteristics of Surface Cold Fronts	Doswell (primary – CIMMS at OU), Haugland
Objectives: Explain an unusual cold frontal passage in early winter 2006-07 using Oklahoma Mesonet data. [more]
Sample Size and Data Quality Issues with Tornado Occurrence Data	Doswell (primary – CIMMS at OU)
Objectives:. Elucidate how adequate tornado occurrence data are for validating hypotheses about the relationship between climate change and tornado occurrence. [more]