Forecast Improvements

Sample Size and Data Quality Issues with Tornado Occurrence Data

Doswell (primary – CIMMS at OU)

Objectives
Elucidate how adequate tornado occurrence data are for validating hypotheses about the relationship between climate change and tornado occurrence.

Accomplishments
This unfunded project has sought to elucidate the issue of how adequate tornado occurrence data are for validating hypotheses about the relationship between climate change and tornado occurrence. It is shown that most efforts to mitigate the secular trends in tornado occurrence data result in reduction of sample size to below the point where meaningful conclusions can be drawn. A publication regarding this work has been submitted for review and is in press as of this writing.

This project is ongoing.

Publications
Other Doswell publications:
Doswell, C. A. III, 2006: Comments on “Contraction rate and its relationship to fronttogenesis, the Lyapaunov exponent, fluid trapping, and airstream boundaries.” Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2642–2643.

Doswell, C. A. III, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: On the use of indices and parameters in forecasting severe storms. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 1 (3), 1-22.

Doswell, C. A. III, 2007: Historical overview of severe convective storms research. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (1), 1-25.

Romero, R., M. Gayà, and C. A. Doswell III, 2007: European climatology of severe convective storm environmental parameters: A test for significant tornado events. Atmos. Res., 83, 389-404.

Spencer, P,L, M.A. Askelson, and C.A. Doswell III, 2007: Choosing the smoothing parameters within a multiple-pass Barnes objective analysis scheme: A cautionary note. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol, 24, 713-726.