Socioeconomic Impacts of Mesoscale Weather Systems and Regional Scale Climate Variations
NSSL Special Project – The Value of Tornado Watches and Warning False Alarms
Funding Type: CIMMS Task III
Objectives
Test for evidence using a regression model that tornado watches or above
normal levels of false alarms affect tornado casualties; examine differences
in false alarm ratios and alternative ways to define false alarms.
Accomplishments
We extended our data set to include 2003, 2004 and 2005 tornadoes, and
we have constructed some of the false alarm variables we wish to employ
in our analysis. We have added some of the false alarm variables to our
casualties’ data set, with regression analysis to follow.
We have also obtained tornado watch and severe thunderstorm watch records from the SPC. These have been used to construct variables to indicate if a tornado event occurred within either a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch box, and if so, determine the lead time on the tornado watch. These variables have been added to our data set, with regression analysis to follow.
During the fall 2007semester we will complete the regression analysis using the newly-constructed false alarm and tornado watch variables.
This project is ongoing.
Publications
Simmons, K. M., and Sutter, D., 2007: Improvements in tornado warnings and
tornado casualties. International J. Mass Emergencies and Disasters, in
press.
Simmons, K. M., and D. Sutter, 2007: Tornado warnings, lead times and tornado casualties: An empirical investigation. Wea. Forecasting, submitted.
Sutter, D., and S. Erickson, 2007: The value of tornado warnings and improvements in warnings. Wea. Forecasting, submitted.