|
|
There are enhanced probabilities of above-normal West African rainfall for the period July-September 1998 over the Gulf of Guinea coast region, especially west of central Nigeria, and over north-western Senegal and south-western Mauritania. Across the Sahel there are enhanced probabilities of near-normal rainfall in those months
This is a summarised climate outlook that was produced by the Forum that met in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire from the 4th to 8th May 1998. The Forum comprised weather experts from the national meteorological services of West Africa, users of meteorological information and experts from other reputable weather centres and institutions of the world. The ultimate aim of the meeting was to identify ways and means of ensuring provision and application of seasonal prediction information to development activities in West Africa. The main emphasis of the forum was ensuring food security and mitigation of weather-related catastrophe in the region. The event was hosted by the Government of Cote d’Ivoire through the invitation of the Cote d’Ivoire National Meteorological Service.
One specific objective of the of the FORUM was to come up with an estimate of the performance of the coming rainy season in West Africa based on the latest weather information and computer based climate prediction products from climate modelling centres. The Forum reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications for this region. Among the principal factors taken into account were the major El Niño event of 1997-98, which has weakened slowly in recent months, and warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that currently extend across much of the tropical Atlantic. Considerable research has established the linkages between SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans and rainfall variability in sub-Saharan West Africa. The Climate Outlook that follows assumes the present El Niño will now weaken more rapidly during the next few months (following most model predictions), and that there will be no development of a tropical Atlantic SST pattern that is known to accompany extreme sub-Saharan rainfall conditions. Any change in these expected SSTs will necessitate a revision of the Outlook statement. Careful monitoring of tropical Atlantic and Pacific SSTs is therefore needed during the next few months. The forecast is to be used to give guidance to policy makers in the field of food security in order to ensure that necessary steps are taken ahead of time towards averting any weather-related food crisis.
The participation in the climate FORUM was wide and varied with 146 participants in total. Eleven of the participants represent the user group who have been undergoing a rigorous Capacity Building Pre-FORUM Course in the ACMAD, based in Niamey, Niger since February 1998. They are drawn from countries of the region and they will be an important link in the implementation of the results of the Forum. These countries are Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Chad, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea-Conakry, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo.
Other participants were climate scientists and experts from national, regional, and international institutes (African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development; Climate Information and Prediction Service, World Meteorological Organization; Co-operative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma; International Research Institute for climate prediction; Laboratoire Météorologique Dynamique; Météo-France; North Carolina State University; National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; ORSTOM, Brest; United Kingdom Meteorological Office; University of Zululand). Additional input was supplied by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The forum was organised by the African Centre for Meteorological Applications for Development, (ACMAD) in conjunction with the AGRHYMET, ICRISAT, START/MEDIAS and the National Meteorological Service of Cote d’Ivoire with the support of the World Bank.
Another important feature of the event is the fact that policy makers in leadership positions in relevant areas participated and received a first-hand brief of the expected performance of rains and the likely effect on food security in different sub-regions and countries of West Africa.
One outstanding benefit to the users is that they were exposed to the capabilities and limitations of weather experts and thus appreciated better the significance of meteorological products. They will be at a better position to interpret forecasts and predictions and thus apply them to their activities from an informed point of view.
The Forum is first of its kind in West Africa and it marks a milestone in regional and inter-disciplinary co-operation in combating a serious problem which touches on the quality of life of the people of this region.
All said and done, the FORUM is designed to contribute
to capacity building in the application of meteorological information to
development which is the very essence of the ACMAD.