First Forum on Seasonal Forecasting and its Application to Early Warning Systems for Food Security in West Africa (PRESAO-1) 
Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, 4-8 may 1998 
THE FORUM PROGRAMME

Day 1 : Monday, 4 May 1998
Participants : All
Plenary Session

 8:30 OPENING CEREMONIES

Master of ceremonies :

M. A. KIGNAMAN-SORO, Côte d’Ivoire Permanent Representative with WMO

8 :30 - 8 :45 Message by Representative of the Secretary- General of the World Meteorological              Organisation, Dr. Harouna M. Diallo

8 :45 - 9 :15 Building partnership between food security programmes and climate information:
-Dr. P. Makinwa-Adebusoye, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, (UNECA)

9 :15 - 9 :45  Contributions and partnership of the PRESAO-1 Forum:

- Dr. Robert CLEMENT-JONES, World Bank
- Dr. Maxx DILLEY, US Agency for International Development (USAID)
- Representative of the French Mission of Co-operation (CF)
-Dr. Macol Stewart (NOAA/OGP-Africa)

9 :45 - 9 :55 Welcome Address:

His Excellency, Minister for Economic Affairs and Finance of the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire

9 :55 - 10 :10 Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS/WCP/WMO):
-Prof. Laban OGALLO

10:10 - 10:25 International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI):
-Dr. Yves TOURRE, IRI

10:25 - 10:40 ACMAD Strategy 2000:
-Prof. Ben MOHAMMED, ACMAD

10:40 - 11:00 Break

11:00 REVIEW OF FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES

Chairman : Prof. Peter TYSON, Climatology Research Group
University of Witwatersrand and Chairman, START Scientific Steering Committee

11:00 - 11:45 Regional climatology and related mechanisms affecting future conditions,
 climate patterns and influence of El Niño and other relevant climate phenomena:
-Dr. Neil WARD, Co-operative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS), University of Oklahoma

11:45 - 12:30 Probabilistic versus deterministic climate models:
-Dr. Mike HARRISON, UK. Met. Office (UKMO)

12:30 - 14:00 Lunch

14:00 - 14:45 Forecast methodologies:
-Dr. Simon MASON, IRI

 14:45 - 15:00 The role of Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Models - The European initiative:
-Dr. David BURRIDGE, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
(Presented by Dr. Mike Harrison on behalf of the ECMWF)

 15:00 – 15:30 Research program in seasonal prediction:
-Jean-Philippe PIEDELIEVRE, CNRM (Météo-France)

 15:30 CURRENT CLIMATE STATE AND INTERNATIONAL CENTER FORECASTS

Chairman : Prof. Peter LAMB, CIMMS, University of Oklahoma
Vice-Chairman : Olivier MOCH, Météo-France

15:30 - 15:50 Current state of global climate:
-Dr. Wassila THIAW, NOAA-NCEP

 15:50 - 16:10 Current state of regional climate:
-Dr. Omar BADDOUR, ACMAD

 16:10 - 16:30 Break
 
16:30 - 18:30 Forecast presentations for West Africa for June-September 1998 :
-CPC/Africa Desk, UKMO, IRI, ACMAD, ECMWF, Météo-France

 Day 2 : Tuesday, 5 May 1998

 Meteorological Track
Theme : Making a Regional Climate Outlook
Participants : Climate forecasters

8:30 REGIONAL CAPACITY AND FORECASTS

Chairman : Prof. Peter LAMB, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, CIMMS (USA)
Co-Chairman: Dr. Olivier MOCH, Meteo-France

8:30 - 9:15 Seasonal Forecast for West Africa, presentation of the methodology developed at the ACMAD by Omar BADDOUR.

9:15 - 9:30 Discussion

9:30 - 10:45 Series of presentations on regional capacity for the provision of climate services

-M. Noukpozounkou Justin M, BENIN; M. Ouedraogo H. Didier, BURKINA-FASO, M. Quashigah Kafui, GHANA, M. Tchedna Joao Lona ,  GUINEE BISSAU, M. Baldé Alpha Oumar, GUINEE CONAKRY, M. Baya
Siaka, MALI, M. Lélé Issa Mouhamadou, NIGER, M. Aligbé Okey , NIGERIA, M. Diop Chérif, SENEGAL, M. Mbainayel Samuel, TCHAD, M. Gadagbui, Kossi Dodzi , TOGO

10:45 - 11:00 Break

11:00 - 13:00 Making a Regional climate Forecast Outlook including its degree of accuracy:
-Simon MASON, (IRI), Dr. Mike HARRISON, Jean-Philippe PIEDELIEVRE, Jean-François GUEREMEY, Jean-Pierre CERON, Serge JANICOT, Simon MASON

13:00 - 14:30 Lunch

14:30 - 16:30 Proposition of the procedure for a regional climate prediction:
-Omar BADDOUR, Prof. Peter LAMB, Simon MASON, (IRI), Dr. Mike HARRISON

16:30 - 17:00 Break

17:00 - 18:30 Write-up and editing:
- Facilitator/discussion leader : Prof. Peter LAMB, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS), USA and Dr. Olivier MOCH, Meteo-FRANCE

18:30 Adjournment

Day 2 : Tuesday, 5 May 1998

Applications Track
Theme : Assessing vulnerabilities
Participants : users of climate information

8:30 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT BY SECTOR

(Food security, natural resources, health, transport)
-Chairman : Dr. Oliviera, AGRHYMET/Co-Chairman: Dr. M. V. K. Sivakumar, WMO

8:30 - 8:50 Food Security and Vulnerability:
-Abdallah Samba, AGRHYMET

8:50 - 9:10 End-to-End Use of Climate Forecasts:

-Mali experience in meteorological application to agricultural sector and the use of climate prediction ,
-Mama KONATE, Mali.

9:10 - 9:30 Agricultural Production Impacts:
-Dr. M. V. K. SHIVAKUMAR, Agricultural Meteorology Division, WMO

9.30 - 9.40 Use of some seasonal forecast methods, Barma N'DIAYE

9:40 - 10:00 Seasonal forecasts for water management and for agricultural production,
-(Projet ELMASIFA project), Michel HOEPFFNER, MEDIAS- France

10:00 - 10:10 Logistics and resource planning.
-Representative of the World Food Programme, WFP.

10.10 - 10.20 The expectations of users.
-Robert CLEMENT-JONES

10:20 - 11:40 Date of the beginning and end of the season,
-Labo MOUSSA, Niger.

10:40 - 11:10 Break

11:10 - 11:30 Environment and Natural Resources Management:
-Prof. Ben Mohammed, ACMAD

11:30 - 11:50 Logistics and Transportation Concerns:
-Martin Ohlsen, World Food Program

11:50 - 12:10 Integrated Economic Impacts:
-Gilles Lamoureux, Club du Sahel

12:10 - 12:30 Discussion

 12:30 - 14:30 Lunch

 14:30 - 15:00 Community responses to vulnerability:
-Armelle FAURE, Consultant to the World Bank

 15:00 - 15:30 Review of regional vulnerabilities:

15:30 - 18:00 Discussion of vulnerability concerns within West Africa :
-Country representatives presented statements regarding specific concerns within their country.

18:00 - 18:30 Summary and intial conclusions.

18:30 Adjournment

Day 3 : Wednesday, 6 May 1998
Theme : Developing action plans
Participants : All

Plenary Session

9:00 DEVELOPING ACTION PLANS

-Chairman : Prof. Abel AFOUDA, Centre Béninois de la Recherche Scientifique et Technique
-Co-Chairman: Prof. A. Benmohamed, University of Niamey

9:00 - 10:30 Climate Outlook
-Summary of the process and final editing

10:30 - 11:00 Summary of sector vulnerability assessments

 11:00 - 11:30 Summary of country vulnerability assessments

 11:30 - 12:00 Terms of reference for Sector Working Groups:
-Macol STEWART, NOAA - Office of Global Programs

 12:00 - 14:00 Lunch

14:00 - 17:30 Working Group Discussions

Working Groups

Working Group on Meteorology
-Chairman and Rapporture:    Mamadou LAMINE BAH, Director of the JNational Meteorological Seville of Guinea Conakry

Working Group on Agriculture and food security
-Chairman, Dr. Olivera
-Rapporture, Dr. Shivakumar

Working Group on public health, Transport, and water resources
-chairman, Prof. BENMOHAMED
-Rapporture, Dr. Yamani DJELLOUL
 
 Day 4 : Thursday, 7 May 1998
Theme : Developing action plans
Participants : All

 9:00 - 10:30 Working Group Discussions (cont.)

10:30 - 11:00 Break

11:00 - 12:30 Working Group Discussions (cont.)

12:30 - 14:00 Lunch

14:00 - 17:30 Working Group presentations:

Discussion and adoption of action plans

 Day 5 : Friday, 8 May 1998
Theme : Climate outlook for West Africa
Participants : All

 8:30 REVIEW OF LESSONS LEARNED

Chairman : M. A. KIGNAMAN-SORO, Côte d’Ivoire Permanent Representative to WMO

8:30 - 10:30 The Way Forward :- Climate Outlook FORA in other regions.
-Prof. Peter TYSON, Climatology Research Group, University of the Wilwatersrand and Chairman, START Scientific Steering Committee, Dr. Macol Stewart, Mr.Joseph M. Kimani; DMC, Nairobi, Mr. Okey ALIGBE; ACMAD, Dr.Wassilla THIAW; African Desk, Washington, Dr. Dara, ENTEKHABI, MIT; Mr. M. S. Senouci and Dr. Yamani, DJELLOUL, Amelle FAURE

10:30 - 11:00 Break

11:00 - 12:00 Summary of Working Group discussions and action plans (Review of the draft Press Release)

12:00 Adjournment

Plenary Session
Participants : All participants and policy makers

15:00 THE SCIENCE AND POLICY INTERFACE

Master of ceremonies/Chairman : M. A. KIGNAMAN-SORO, Côte d’Ivoire Permanent Representative to WMO

15:00 - 15:30 Presentation of the regional Climate Outlook
-Dr. Omar BADDOUR, ACMAD

15:30 - 15:50 Presentation of applications planning session:
Dr. OLIVIERA, AGRHYMET

15:50 - 16:45 The Science and Policy Interface - Addressing the concerns and interests of regional policy makers
-His Excellency, Mr. S. TOURE, High Commissioner for Water, Côte d’Ivoire

16:45 - 17:00 The way forward: the partners contribution. Macol STEWART
(NOAA), M. Diallo (OMM), Peter LAMB

17.00 -17.30 Closing Remarks

His Excellency Monsieur Akele EZAN,  Minister of Economic Infrastructure of Côte d’Ivoire.

17:30 - 18:00 Forum assessment and future planning for West Africa; collection of the questionnaires.

18:00 Adjournment

18:30 – 19:30 Press Conference

" Perspectives from Regional Intergovernmental and International Bodies "
-S. E. Monsieur Akele Minister of Economic Infrastructure of Côte d’Ivoire, Dr. George A. Santos OLIVIERA, AGRHYMET, Prof. P.LAMB, Dr. Harouna DIALLO, OMM, Dr. Macol STEWART, NOAA/OGP,Mon. A. KIGNAMAN-SORO Représentant Permanent de la Côte
d’Ivoire auprès de l’OMM
 
  
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