Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 2005:
Contraction rate and its relationship to frontogenesis, the Lyapunov
exponent, fluid trapping, and airstream boundaries.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1353-1369. [AMS] [PDF]Fronts, Airstreams, and Airstream Boundaries
The first manuscript from this collaboration is now available:
Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 2005:
Contraction rate and its relationship to frontogenesis, the Lyapunov
exponent, fluid trapping, and airstream boundaries.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1353-1369. [AMS] [PDF]
One use of these diagnostics is to diagnose fluid trapping. For an illustration of this, see this case study of a vorticity maximum as observed in water-vapor imagery.
Snapshots of trajectories and airstream boundaries:
ERICA IOP 5:
Cyclone in Diffluent Flow
ERICA IOP 8:
Cyclone in Confluent Flow
Bob's page (with animations of ERICA IOP 5 and IOP 8)
Abstract for the
11th Cyclone Workshop
Abstract for the 10th
Cyclone Workshop
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
Fronts, Airstreams, and Airstream Boundaries
The first manuscript from this collaboration is now available:
Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 2005:
Contraction rate and its relationship to frontogenesis, the Lyapunov
exponent, fluid trapping, and airstream boundaries.
Mon. Wea. Rev., in press. [PDF]
One use of these diagnostics is to diagnose fluid trapping. For an illustration of this, see this case study of a vorticity maximum as observed in water-vapor imagery.
Snapshots of trajectories and airstream boundaries:
ERICA IOP 5:
Cyclone in Diffluent Flow
ERICA IOP 8:
Cyclone in Confluent Flow
Bob's page (with animations of ERICA IOP 5 and IOP 8)
Abstract for the
11th Cyclone Workshop
Abstract for the 10th
Cyclone Workshop
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/communication.html
This web page was developed for our summer Research Experience for Undergraduates program at the Oklahoma Weather Center, but the links are applicable to many different types of writers. I have developed a 4-hour workshop on good scientific communication skills and have presented this material to a variety of different scientific organizations. I'd be happy to present this workshop in a number of different formats at your group. Email me to find out how.
Return to the
National Severe Storms Laboratory.
Return to David Schultz's homepage.
david.schultz@noaa.gov
Last update: 5 July 2005
http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/communication.html
This web page was developed for our summer Research Experience for Undergraduates program at the Oklahoma Weather Center, but the links are applicable to many different types of writers. I have developed a 4-hour workshop on good scientific communication skills and have presented this material to a variety of different scientific organizations. I'd be happy to present this workshop in a number of different formats at your group. Email me to find out how.
Return to the
National Severe Storms Laboratory.
Return to David Schultz's homepage.
david.schultz@noaa.gov
Last update: 5 July 2005
David Schultz 5/27/03
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.Flash Flooding and Potential Vorticity
The goal was to see the extent to which mid- and upper-tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies precede flash-flooding events. Steve's research found that for five cases he examined, four of the cases suggested that looking for these potential vorticity anomalies was a useful precursor to flash floods.
While this is suggestive, there are many caveats that remain unanswered at this time.
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
> So, a weather question..... Here everything is El nino, El nino
> ..... but in your penultimate post it seemed like it might be
> inappropriate to ascribe certain weather systems to el nino.... what are
> the facts, in layman's terms.
Sara,
Fact 1: El Nino is a warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. The atmosphere responds to that warming by producing lower surface pressure above the warm water. That atmospheric response is called the Southern Oscillation. Therefore, when you hear the media talk about how the El Nino will affect you, they really mean how the atmospheric response to the El Nino will affect you.
Fact 2: Whether there is an El Nino going on or not, weather happens. Storms come and go. Floods happen. Droughts happen. Therefore, if southern California has a big rainstorm in February 1998, we have no way of knowing whether it would have occurred were we not having an El Nino. Now, if southern California gets a large number of storms in January through March 1998 and gets washed away, AND, we as atmospheric scientists can say, "the unusually heavy rains in S. CA were due to a jet stream that was farther south than usual because the convection over the equatorial Pacific Ocean . . . (more causative links omitted) . . . which is a direct response to the warm water in that area due to the El Nino", then we have made a link between the heavy rains in a climatological sense and El Nino.
Note added 7/31/99: The excellent paper by Barsugli et al. (1999) in
the July 1999 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
is one way that showing the link between individual weather events and
larger-scale processes might be explored.
Just remember, if anyone tries to pin a specific weather event on El
Nino or even a general climate anomaly without having done the work
(i.e., the causative links), they shouldn't be taken seriously.
Fact 3: The atmosphere has been known to respond to different
El Nino episodes differently. Simply put, not every year that has an
El Nino has the same weather. AND not every place on the earth is
sensitive to El Ninos. Here in Oklahoma, we're split between having a
cold winter and a warm winter. My own research
(Schultz et al., January 1998, Monthly Weather Review,
pp. 5-27) indicates that cold frontal passages in the southern Plains
of the U.S. (e.g., Texas, Oklahoma), Mexico, and Central America are
about twice as likely to occur during El Nino years than La Nina years
(the opposite pattern), but that doesn't necessarily mean colder
temperatures on average because the cold air may not last as long.
The Pacific Northwest, on the other hand, is very sensitive to the
effects of El Nino. Snowfall in the Cascade Mountains can be much
below normal because of the diverted jet stream during an El Nino
year.
Anyway, that's about it for now. I was actually on a radio talk show
here in Norman about two months ago talking about El Nino and tried
to make the same points. I've been getting the same questions, so
I think I'll make this email into an essay on my web page. Check it
out in the near future.
Take care,
Dave
P.S. If you want further information about El Ninos, check out the
following web pages:
NOAA's
Climate Prediction Center and NOAA's Pacific
Marine Environmental Laboratory.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
Since 10/14/97, you are visitor number:
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© University of Oklahoma College of Geosciences
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory/FRDD, Suite 4356
120 David L. Boren Blvd
Norman, OK 73072-7326
phone: (405) 325-6136
fax: not known at this time
Room: National Weather Center 4360
david.schultz@noaa.gov
|
The
NSSL Historical Weather Data Archives
The Increasing Costs of AMS Conferences
The Mysteries of Mammatus Clouds by Schultz and Coauthors
The Synoptic Regulation of Dryline Intensity by Schultz, Weiss, and Hoffman
On the Use of Indices and Parameters in Forecasting Severe Storms by Doswell and Schultz
Climatology of Elevated Severe Convective Storms by Kate Horgan et al.
Fred Sanders
Symposium: Photos and the Science of Cold Fronts
Welcome to my homepage. Here at NSSL, I perform research within the confines of the general topic of Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology. The goal of synoptic-dynamic meteorologists is not only to forecast the weather, but to explain how and why the weather works the way it does. In this way, we understand why our weather forecasts are successful or not so successful, and find methods to improve the science of weather forecasting. I am primarily an observationalist, but my research, where appropriate, also entails numerical modeling (both idealized and real-data) and the development of theory and tools (methods, equations) for meteorological diagnosis.
Return to the
National Severe Storms Laboratory.
David Schultz
david.schultz@noaa.gov
Last update: 22 May 2006
Number of visitors:
Counter courtesy of Net Digits
(initiated late 1995).
Number of hits:
(initiated 1/13/99).
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory/FRDD, Suite 4356
120 David L. Boren Blvd
Norman, OK 73072-7326
phone: (405) 325-6136
fax: not known at this time
Room: National Weather Center 4360
david.schultz@noaa.gov
|
The
NSSL Historical Weather Data Archives
The Increasing Costs of AMS Conferences
The Mysteries of Mammatus Clouds by Schultz and Coauthors
The Synoptic Regulation of Dryline Intensity by Schultz, Weiss, and Hoffman
Cloud-Top Temperatures of Precipitating Winter Clouds by Hanna, Schultz, and Irving
On the Use of Indices and Parameters in Forecasting Severe Storms by Doswell and Schultz
Banded Convection Caused by Frontogenesis in a Conditionally, Symmetrically, and
Inertially Unstable Environment by Schultz and Knox
Climatology of Elevated Severe Convective Storms by Kate Horgan et al.
Fred Sanders
Symposium: Photos and the Science of Cold Fronts
Welcome to my homepage. Here at NSSL, I perform research within the confines of the general topic of Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology. The goal of synoptic-dynamic meteorologists is not only to forecast the weather, but to explain how and why the weather works the way it does. In this way, we understand why our weather forecasts are successful or not so successful, and find methods to improve the science of weather forecasting. I am primarily an observationalist, but my research, where appropriate, also entails numerical modeling (both idealized and real-data) and the development of theory and tools (methods, equations) for meteorological diagnosis.
Return to the
National Severe Storms Laboratory.
David Schultz
david.schultz@noaa.gov
Last update: 22 May 2006
Number of visitors:
Counter courtesy of Net Digits
(initiated late 1995).
Number of hits:
(initiated 1/13/99).
Lightning in Winter Storms
Schultz, D. M., 1999: Lake-effect snowstorms in northern Utah and western New York with and without lightning. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 1023-1031. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Jim Steenburgh and collaborators have written a paper on lake-effect snowstorms over the Great Salt Lake. In that paper, they develop a climatology of 16 well-defined events over the last 5 years (see their Table 1).
Of the 16 lake-effect snowbands, three of those bands produced cloud-to-ground lightning as detected by the National Lightning Detection Network (courtesy of Gary Huffines and Richard Orville, Texas A&M). I compiled the proximity soundings (Salt Lake City) for each event.
I constructed a similar plot for the dewpoint temperatures.
Note that the LTG soundings are warmer and moister in the lower troposphere than the NO LTG soundings. In fact, every LTG sounding has a warmer surface and 700 hPa temperature than all the NO LTG soundings. There appears to be no difference between the two groups (LTG and NO LTG) for the lower-tropospheric lapse rate, as measured by the surface-700-hPa temperature.
The Great-Salt-Lake temperatures (courtesy of Scott Halvorson, University of Utah) for the LTG cases were 13.5, 14.0, and 18.0 deg C. For the NO LTG cases, they were 2.0-12.0 deg C.
Two similar plots for lake-effect snowstorms in Buffalo, derived from a series of dates listed in Moore and Orville (1990, Monthly Weather Review), can be seen here (temperature) and here (dewpoint).
That warm lower tropospheres favor lightning doesn't hold all the time. Here is an example (courtesy of Jim LaDue, Operational Support Facility) of a temperature and dewpoint sounding taken 3 hours before two positive cloud-to-ground strokes recorded by the NLDN. Note that it is nearly -20 C at the surface!
These results are in agreement with those of Holle and Cortinas (1998). In particular, their Fig. 2 shows that the number of reports of thunder is greater at Salt Lake City and Buffalo for surface temperatures greater than 0 degrees C.
MacGorman and Rust (1998, 292) summarize their review of lightning in winter storms with, ``we are aware of no thorough scientific investigation of causal relationships between the electrical state of winter storms and their snowfall. Extensive tests to evaluate the proposed hypotheses concerning possible links between lightning and the mesoscale and synoptic scale meteorology associated with winter storms have yet to be performed.'' I hope that this research provides some evidence towards understanding the synoptic-scale environment for lightning in winter storms. Hopefully, this work will also lead to operational criteria for forecasting wintertime lightning.
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
Class time: 9:30-11:30 am, Thursdays (starting Aug. 24)
Class location: NSSL Main Conference Room (first floor)
Prerequisites: Permission of Instructor
Register under section 028 for 1-3 credits. The grading is S/U.
This course will be primarily reading and discussion on synoptic-scale influences on convection. Topics to be covered will depend on those enrolled, but may include the following: spatial and temporal climatology of deep moist convection, convection in the desert Southwest, synoptic-scale effects on convection, observations of convection.
August 24:
An Overview of Convection and Synoptics
Doswell (2001):
Severe Convective Storms -- An Overview
Doswell and Bosart (2001): Extratropical
Synoptic-Scale Processes and Severe Convection
August 31: Cyclone Workshop-Schultz out of town: Jack Kain guest-moderates
Doswell (1982): The Operational Meteorology of Convective Weather
Volume I: Operational Mesoanalysis. NOAA Tech Memo NWS NSSFC-5
Johns and Doswell (1992): Severe local storms forecasting. WAF, 7, 588-612.
Doswell et al. (1996): Flash flood forecasting: An ingredients-based
methodology. WAF, 11, 560-581.
September 7:
Convection Climatology: Big Picture
Hsu and Wallace (1976): The global distribution of the annual and semiannual cycles in precipitation. MWR, 104, 1093-1101.
Garreaud and Wallace (1997): The diurnal march of convective
cloudiness over the Americas. MWR, 125, 3157-3171.
Iskenderian (1995): A 10-year climatology of Northern Hemispheric
tropical cloud plumes and their composite flow patterns. J. Climate, 8, 1630-1637.
Laing and Fritsch (1997): The global populations of mesoscale convective complexes. QJRMS, 123, 389-405.
Laing and Fritsch (2000): The large-scale environments of the global populations of mesoscale convective complexes. MWR, 128, 2756-2776.
September 14:
Convection Climatology of U.S.
Wallace (1975): Diurnal variations in precipitation and thunderstorm
frequency over the conterminous U.S. MWR, 103, 406-419.
Changnon (1988a,b): Climatography of thunder events in the
conterminous U.S. Parts I and II. J. Climate, 1, 389-398, 399-405.
Karl and Knight (1998): Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. BAMS, 79, 231-241.
September 21:Convective Initiation
Fulks (1951): The Instability Line. Compendium of Meteorology. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Newton (1963): Dynamics of Severe Convective Storms. Severe Local Storms Monograph, 5(27), Amer. Meteor. Soc., 33-58.
Beebe and Bates, 1955: A mechanism for assisting in the release of convective instability. MWR, 83, 1-10.
Beebe, R., 1958: Tornado proximity soundings. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
39, 195-201.
September 28: Schultz out of town: Prof. Jim Moore guest
moderates
Great Plains Elevated Mixed Layers
Carlson et al., 1983: Elevated mixed layers in the severe storm
environment---Conceptual model and case studies. MWR, 111, 1453-1473.
Lanicci, John M., Thomas T. Warner, 1991: A Synoptic Climatology of
the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over the Southern Great
Plains in Spring. Part I: Structure, Dynamics, and Seasonal
Evolution. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 6, No. 2,
pp. 181-197.
Lanicci, John M., Thomas T. Warner, 1991: A
Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over
the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part II: The Life Cycle of the Lid. Vol. 6, No. 2,
pp. 198-213.
Lanicci, John M., Thomas T. Warner, 1991: A
Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over
the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part III: Relationship to
Severe-Storms Climatology. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 6, No.
2, pp. 214-226.
October 5: Schultz out of town: Dave Stensrud guest moderates
Low-Level Jets
Stensrud (1996): Importance
of Low-Level Jets to Climate: A Review. J. Climate, 9,
1698-1711.
Bonner (1968): Climatology of the low-level jet. MWR, 96, 833-850.
Hoecker (1963): Three southerly low-level jet streams delineated by
the Weather Bureau special pibal network of 1961. MWR, 91,
573-582.
Rasmussen (1967): Atmospheric water vapor transport and the water
balance of North America. Part I: Characteristics of the water vapor
flux field. MWR, 95, 403-426.
Thompson et al. (1994): Autumnal
return of tropical air to the Gulf of Mexico's coastal plain. WAF,
9, 348-360.
Higgins et al (1997): Influence of the Great Plains low-level jet on
summertime precipitation and moisture transport over the central U.S.
J. Climate, 10, 481-507.
October 12: Elevated Convection
Colman (1990): Thunderstorms above frontal surfaces in environments
without positive CAPE. Part I: A climatology. MWR, 118,
1103-1121.
Colman (1990): Thunderstorms above frontal surfaces in environments
without positive CAPE. Part II: Organization and instability
mechanisms. MWR, 118, 1123-1144.
Williams (1991): Comments on "Thunderstorms above frontal surfaces in
environments without positive CAPE. Part I: A climatology." MWR, 119,
2511-2513.
Colman, Bradley R., 1991: Reply.
Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 119, No. 10, pp. 2514-2514.
Moore et al., 1998: Heavy precipitation associated with elevated thunderstorms formed in a convectively unstable layer aloft. Meteorol. Applications, 5, 373-384.
October 19:Convection and Extratropical Cyclones
Uccellini, 1990: Processes contributing to the rapid development of
extratropical cyclones. Extratropical Cyclones, The Erik Palmen
Memorial Volume, C. W. Newton and E. O. Holopainen, Eds.,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81-105.
Browning, K. A., 1990: Organization of clouds and precipitation in
extratropical cyclones. Extratropical Cyclones, The Erik
Palmen Memorial Volume, C. W. Newton and E. O. Holopainen,
Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 129-153.
Dickinson, M. J., L. F. Bosart, W. E. Bracken, G. J. Hakim,
D. M. Schultz, M. A. Bedrick, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The March 1993
Superstorm cyclogenesis: Incipient phase synoptic- and
convective-scale flow interaction and model performance. Monthly
Weather Review, 125, 3041-3072. |PDF
FILE|
October 26: North American Monsoon and Jim Moore seminar
Barlow, Mathew, Sumant Nigam, Ernesto H. Berbery, 1998: Evolution
of the North American Monsoon System. Journal of Climate:
Vol. 11, No. 9, pp. 2238-2257.
Douglas, Machael W., Robert A. Maddox,, Kenneth Howard, Sergio Reyes ,
1993: The
Mexican Monsoon. Journal of Climate: Vol. 6, No. 8,
pp. 1665-1678.
Higgins, R. W., Y. Yao, X. L. Wang, 1997: Influence
of the North American Monsoon System on the U.S. Summer
Precipitation Regime. Journal of Climate: Vol. 10, No. 10,
pp. 2600-2622.
November 2: Arizona Convection: Dave Schultz out of town.
Mike Douglas Guest Moderates
Maddox, Robert A., Darren M. McCollum, Kenneth W. Howard, 1995:
Large-Scale Patterns Associated with Severe Summertime
Thunderstorms over Central Arizona. Weather and Forecasting:
Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 763-778.
Wallace, Clinton E., Robert A. Maddox, Kenneth W. Howard, 1999:
Summertime Convective Storm Environments in Central Arizona: Local
Observations. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 14, No. 6,
pp. 994-1006.
Carleton, A. M., 1986: Synoptic-dynamic character of bursts and
breaks in the southwest U.S. summer precipitation singularity. J.
Climatology, 6, 605-623. (pages 617-623 optional).
November 9:
Orographic Convective Initiation and Brad Smull seminar
Banta (1990): The Role of Mountain Flows in Making Clouds.
Atmospheric Processes over Complex Terrain, W. Blumen, Ed.,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 229-283
November 16: Orographic Convective Initiation (continued)
Banta and Schaaf (1987): Thunderstorm genesis zones in the Colorado
Rocky Mountains as determined by traceback of geosynchronous satellite
images. MWR, 115, 463-476.
Haiden (2000): Mountain cumulus initiation along the Colorado Front
Range. Ninth Conf. on Mountain Meteorology, Aspen, Colorado,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 352-354.
November 23: Thanksgiving
November 30: Microscale Effects
Austin, 1948: A note on cumulus growth in a nonsaturated
environment. J. Meteor., 5, 103-107.
Yuter, Sandra E., Robert A. Houze Jr., 1995: Three-Dimensional
Kinematic and Microphysical Evolution of Florida
Cumulonimbus. Part
I: Spatial Distribution of Updrafts, Downdrafts, and
Precipitation. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, No. 7,
pp. 1921-1940.
Yuter, Sandra E., Robert A. Houze Jr., 1995: Three-Dimensional
Kinematic and Microphysical Evolution of Florida
Cumulonimbus. Part
II: Frequency Distributions of Vertical Velocity, Reflectivity,
and Differential Reflectivity. Monthly Weather Review:
Vol. 123, No. 7, pp. 1941-1963.
Yuter, Sandra E., Robert A. Houze Jr., 1995: Three-Dimensional
Kinematic and Microphysical Evolution of Florida
Cumulonimbus. Part
III: Vertical Mass Transport, Maw Divergence, and
Synthesis. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, No. 7,
pp. 1964-1983.
December 7:
Miscellaneous Topics and Where Do We Go From Here?
Roebber, P.J. and L.F. Bosart, 1998: The
sensitivity of precipitation to circulation details. Part I: An
analysis of regional analogues. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 437-455.
Bryan, George H., Michael J. Fritsch, 2000:
Moist Absolute Instability: The Sixth Static Stability State.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: Vol. 81,
No. 6, pp. 1207-1230.
Fritsch et al. (1998): Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting: Report
of the Eight Prospectus Team, U.S. Weather Research Program. BAMS,
79, 285-299.
Synoptic climatology
Heideman and Fritsch, 1988: Forcing mechanisms and other characteristics of significant summertime precipitation. WAF, 3, 115-130.
Epstein and Barnston 1990: A precipitation climatology of 5-day periods.
Hagemeyer 1991: A lower-tropospheric thermodynamic climatology for March through September: Some implications for thunderstorm forecasting.
Winkler et al. 1988: Seasonal variations in the diurnal characteristics of heavy hourly precipitation across the United States.
Brooks and Stensrud, 2000: Climatology of Heavy Rain Events in the United States from Hourly Precipitation Observations.
Observations of convection
Stensrud, D.J., 1996: Effects of a persistent, midlatitude mesoscale region of convection on the large-scale environment during the warm season.
Stensrud, D.J., and R.A. Maddox, 1988: Opposing mesoscale circulations: A case study.
Yuter and Houze 1995: Three-dimensional kinematic and microphysical evolution of Florida cumulonimbus. Parts I, II, and III.
Forecasting the mode of convection
OU Academic Integrity Website: http://www.ou.edu/provost/integrity/
Return to the David Schultz's Homepage.
David Schultz
david.schultz@noaa.gov
Last update: 16 November 2000
Number of hits: (initiated 4/26/00).
Schultz, D. M., and H. Wernli: Determining cyclone structure and evolution from large-scale flow. A web essay. (20 August 2001)
I taught a class at OU during Fall 2000 entitled Synoptic-Scale Influences on Convection (METR6990). (22 December 2000)
The Vorticity Maximum of 27 November 2000 (29 November 2000)
Cool Image of the Day: Texas
Longhorn satellite imagery (12 December 1999)
Good Scientific Communication (30
September 1999)
Famous (and
not so famous) quotes (10 December 1997)
My essay on El Nino and its effects on weather (29 October 1997)
Pictures from the Tenth Cyclone Workshop, Val Morin, Quebec (14 October 1997)
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
Schultz, D. M., and H. Wernli: Determining cyclone structure and evolution from large-scale flow. A web essay. (20 August 2001)
I taught a class at OU during Fall 2000 entitled Synoptic-Scale Influences on Convection (METR6990). (22 December 2000)
The Vorticity Maximum of 27 November 2000 (29 November 2000)
Cool Image of the Day: Texas
Longhorn satellite imagery (12 December 1999)
Good Scientific Communication (30
September 1999)
Famous (and
not so famous) quotes (10 December 1997)
My essay on El Nino and its effects on weather (29 October 1997)
Pictures from the Tenth Cyclone Workshop, Val Morin, Quebec (14 October 1997)
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
I also used to write record reviews for the Norman Transcript newspaper.
I also used to write record reviews for the Norman Transcript newspaper.
Cold Surges
This is an image of the Superstorm at 4 pm EST March 13, 1993. The center of the low is near Virginia and the cold surge can be seen as two arc-shaped clouds: one over the Pacific Ocean, the other in Honduras.
This research on cold surges has led me (along with Jim Steenburgh of the University of Utah and Brian Colle of the University of Washington) to pursue mesoscale modeling of the March 1993 surge to answer questions which could only partially be addressed from our previous observational work. More specifically, we are looking at the structure and evolution of the leading edge of the cold surge on the mesoscale and the nature of the gap flow through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. An animation of the model simulation over the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be viewed here. An abstract of this work can be found elsewhere.
Here is an image from another site showing the cooling associated with a wind event. Here are some more images of these wind jets from Dudley Chelton at Oregon State University.
Further Reading:
Schultz, D. M., and W. J. Steenburgh, 1999: The formation of a forward-tilting cold front with multiple cloud bands during Superstorm 1993. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1108-1124. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Steenburgh, W. J., Schultz, D. M., and B. A. Colle, 1998: The
structure and evolution of gap outflow over the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
Mexico. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2673-2691.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, and L. F. Bosart, 1998: Planetary- and
synoptic-scale signals associated with Central American cold surges.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 5-27.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, L. F. Bosart, G. J. Hakim,
M. A. Bedrick, M. J. Dickinson, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The 1993
Superstorm cold surge: Frontal structure, gap flow, and tropical
impact. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 5-39; Corrigenda,
125, 662.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Since 5/28/97, you are visitor number:
David Schultz
david.schultz@noaa.gov
Last update: 7 April 2002
I was born in Pittsburgh, PA. I grew up in what was then rural southwestern Pennsylvania, playing in the streams, climbing trees, and bicycling the streets. It was these experiences observing nature and being curious about the way nature worked that probably was responsible for turning me toward science. I attained the rank of Eagle Scout in the Boy Scouts and also played soccer, and ran track and cross-country. I graduated from high school in 1983. [Since graduating and moving away, my hometown was replaced by a town that is now much closer to suburban generica (sigh).]
In the fall of 1983, I started college at MIT. I lived with a great group of guys in a beautiful house at 32 Hereford Street in Back Bay Boston known as Chi Phi. I continued to run indoor/outdoor track and cross country, achieving letters in all three sports. My senior year I was very much honored to receive The Most Improved Runner award in cross country. I graduated in 1987 with a degree in Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, specializing in geology.
I then started my career in meteorology at the University of Washington in Seattle. After completing my Master's degree, I moved to Albany, New York and started my doctoral studies at the Department of Atmospheric Science at SUNY Albany.
After 13 years of undergraduate and graduate studies at three different schools, it was finally time to join the real world! I moved to Norman, Oklahoma and accepted a position at the National Severe Storms Laboratory. My interests still include competitive running. (Oklahoma Runner) I am president of the Norman Running Club. Other sports that I participate in include flat-water sprint kayak racing, sea-kayaking, mountain-biking, skiing, camping, hiking, and rock-climbing. I love to travel. I've driven across the U.S. three times from coast to coast, and twice I've covered half the U.S. I've been in all of the 48 contiguous states (just visited Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama for the first time in May 1999!).
I am a research meteorologist, specializing in synoptic and mesoscale
weather systems. I study the structure and evolution of low pressure
systems and fronts, with a particular emphasis on winter weather of
the Western United States. Much of the research I do contributes to
improvements in understanding and forecasting weather systems. By
understanding past weather events, we pave the way to prevent future
weather forecast failures.
A typical day at work finds me in front of a computer: performing calculations, plotting diagnostics, viewing satellite imagery of the storms I study. Most of it is not very sexy, but I find great enjoyment in picking apart a particular weather event, trying to understand how the atmosphere made all the ingredients come together to make a big snow dump. Every once in a while, a particular moment may occur when I am able to demonstrate how I think the atmosphere works, using my creativity and hard work. Those days are priceless!
At other times, I am traveling around the country, presenting my research at seminars and conferences, meeting other scientists and students, talking with them about their research, and discussing collaborative research projects. That is another thing that I really enjoy about my job. Sometimes I even have the pleasure to be out in the field taking direct observations of the weather during field-research programs, like the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX).
Another pleasure of my job is interacting with students through seminars that I give at different universities, or the students that I advise on their undergraduate or graduate research projects. In my career I have benefitted from teachers and colleagues who have given me wonderful advice about being a research scientist and I thank all those people. Interacting with younger scientists is my way to give back to those who come after me.
Return to
David Schultz's Homepage.David Schultz
I was born in Pittsburgh, PA. I grew up in what was then rural southwestern Pennsylvania, playing in the streams, climbing trees, and bicycling the streets. It was these experiences observing nature and being curious about the way nature worked that probably was responsible for turning me toward science. I attained the rank of Eagle Scout in the Boy Scouts and also played soccer, and ran track and cross-country. I graduated from high school in 1983. [Since graduating and moving away, my hometown was replaced by a town that is now much closer to suburban generica (sigh).]
In the fall of 1983, I started college at MIT. I lived with a great group of guys in a beautiful house at 32 Hereford Street in Back Bay Boston known as Chi Phi. I continued to run indoor/outdoor track and cross country, achieving letters in all three sports. My senior year I was very much honored to receive The Most Improved Runner award in cross country. I graduated in 1987 with a degree in Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, specializing in geology.
I then started my career in meteorology at the University of Washington in Seattle. After completing my Master's degree, I moved to Albany, New York and started my doctoral studies at the Department of Atmospheric Science at SUNY Albany.
After 13 years of undergraduate and graduate studies at three different schools, it was finally time to join the real world! I moved to Norman, Oklahoma and accepted a position at the National Severe Storms Laboratory. My interests still include competitive running. (Oklahoma Runner) I am president of the Norman Running Club. Other sports that I participate in include flat-water sprint kayak racing, sea-kayaking, mountain-biking, skiing, camping, hiking, and rock-climbing. I love to travel. I've driven across the U.S. three times from coast to coast, and twice I've covered half the U.S. I've been in all of the 48 contiguous states (just visited Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama for the first time in May 1999!).
I am a research meteorologist, specializing in synoptic and mesoscale
weather systems. I study the structure and evolution of low pressure
systems and fronts, with a particular emphasis on winter weather of
the Western United States. Much of the research I do contributes to
improvements in understanding and forecasting weather systems. By
understanding past weather events, we pave the way to prevent future
weather forecast failures.
A typical day at work finds me in front of a computer: performing calculations, plotting diagnostics, viewing satellite imagery of the storms I study. Most of it is not very sexy, but I find great enjoyment in picking apart a particular weather event, trying to understand how the atmosphere made all the ingredients come together to make a big snow dump. Every once in a while, a particular moment may occur when I am able to demonstrate how I think the atmosphere works, using my creativity and hard work. Those days are priceless!
At other times, I am traveling around the country, presenting my research at seminars and conferences, meeting other scientists and students, talking with them about their research, and discussing collaborative research projects. That is another thing that I really enjoy about my job. Sometimes I even have the pleasure to be out in the field taking direct observations of the weather during field-research programs, like the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX).
Another pleasure of my job is interacting with students through seminars that I give at different universities, or the students that I advise on their undergraduate or graduate research projects. In my career I have benefitted from teachers and colleagues who have given me wonderful advice about being a research scientist and I thank all those people. Interacting with younger scientists is my way to give back to those who come after me.
Return to
David Schultz's Homepage.David Schultz
Frontal/Cyclone Conceptual Models
This research is published in July 1998 Monthly Weather Review.
Download an Adobe Acrobat version of this manuscript.
Idealized primitive-equation
simulations of cyclones embedded in confluence and diffluence have
been performed by Heini Wernli of ETH in Zurich, Switzerland. His
simulations support the Schultz et al. (1998) results. Here are his results.
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
My favorite place in the U.S. has
to be Zion National Park in
Utah. The majestic rocks of Zion are an ancient windblown sandstone.
This picture was taken 1500 feet above the Zion Canyon floor, atop
Angel's Landing in August 1987. It was straight down to the stream
below all around this perch from where I was taking this picture.
This is my friend Jim
Steenburgh hiking across a snow field in Grand Teton National Park during a
hike we did together in July 1990. What you don't see below is a snow
field which is about a few hundred feet long---if we slipped, it was a
long cold ride down. Nice butt, Jim!
I spent four years living in
Seattle while I attained my Masters degree at the University of
Washington. This picture is of the Space Needle and downtown area
from atop Queen Anne Hill north of the city.
South of Seattle is a dormant
volcano named Mt. Rainier. Mt. Rainier is the
tallest mountain in Washington State and is covered with glaciers. A
beautiful place to see Mt. Rainier is on the south side of the
mountain at the meadows at Paradise. This picture is of Mt. Rainier looking
northwest from a trail leading away from Paradise.
This is another picture of
Mt. Rainier, this time viewed from 60 miles to the south from the peak
of Mt. St. Helens, the volcano which erupted in May 1980. The rock
formation at the bottom of the photo is the new lava dome in the
crater rising up again. The remains of Spirit Lake are visible in
the middle of the photo.
In July 1994, fellow meteorologist and
classmate Greg
Hakim and I toured Norway on our bicycles. In two weeks, we
covered 550 miles and had great weather practically the whole time(!).
This picture was taken at our highest elevation on that trip (1434
meters) on a road travelling up over an elevated plateau in the center
of the country, the Sognefjell. Despite all the snow around, the
temperature was quite warm.
One of our steepest climbs on
that bicycle trip was near the Geiranger Fjord. We descended into the
fjord on the near side of the picture and then climbed out on the far
side of the photo on the 12 switchbacks in the road. The total
elevation climb was about half a mile along about 8 miles of road.
In Encampment, Wyoming,
the miners built a two-story latrine for access in the winter, when
the first story is buried under six feet of snow.
Here I am in Medicine Bow National
Forest, west of Laramie, Wyoming.
This picture was taken on the South
Kiabab Trail on my way down into the Grand Canyon in October 2000.
This was on a three-day South Rim to North Rim backpack across the
canyon with members of the Oklahoma City Chapter of the Sierra
Club.
Return to
David Schultz's Homepage.David Schultz
room: NWC 4360
phone: (405) 325-6136
fax: no fax number yet
David.Schultz@noaa.gov
M.S., December 1990:
University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric
Sciences.
Advisor: Prof. Cliff
Mass
B.S., June 1987: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmosphere and Planetary Science.
Yoshi Sasaki Award for Best M.S. Thesis Publication, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 2004: Burke and Schultz (2004): "A 4-yr climatology of cold-season bow echoes over the continental United States"
First Annual CIMMS Outstanding Paper Award, 2005: Schultz and Trapp (2003): "Nonclassical cold-frontal structure caused by dry subcloud air in northern Utah during the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX)"
NOAATech 2006 Best Presentation: Interactive Web Access to Historical Weather Data Archives. Willa Zhu, David Schultz, Kevin Kelleher, and Nancy Soreide
Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma: 2003-2005.
Adjunct Assistant Professor, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma: 1999-2002.
Editor, Monthly Weather Review: 2004-present.
Associate Editor, Monthly Weather Review: 1999-2001.
Assistant Editor and Co-Founder, Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology: 2005-present.
National Weather Service Forecaster: 2002 Winter Olympic Games.
AMS Mesoscale Committee, 2002-2005.
AMS Weather Analysis and Forecasting Committee, 2005-present.
American Meteorological Society, 1985-present
Sigma Xi, 1997-present
International Commission on History, 2001-present
Schultz, D. M., and F. Zhang, 2006:
Baroclinic development within zonally varying flows.
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., submitted. [Available online at
http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/schultz-zhang.pdf]
Stuart, N. A., D. M. Schultz, and
G. Klein, 2006: Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of
the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive psychological
aspects of expert weather forecasters. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., submitted. [Available
online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/stuart_part2.pdf]
Barnes, L. R., E. C. Gruntfest, M,
H. Hayden, D. M. Schultz, and C. Benight, 2006: False alarms and close
calls: A conceptual model of warning accuracy.
Wea. Forecasting, submitted. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/barnesetal.pdf]
Schultz, D. M., K. Seitter, L. Bosart,
C. Gorski, and C. Iovinella, 2006: Factors affecting the increasing
costs of AMS Conferences.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., submitted. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/Schultzetal-AMSConfCosts.pdf] [PDF]
Hanna, J. W., D. M. Schultz, and
A. R. Irving, 2006: Cloud-top temperatures for precipitating winter clouds.
J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., submitted. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/hannaetal.pdf]
[PDF]
Horgan, K. L., D. M. Schultz, J. E. Hales, S. F. Corfidi, and
R. H. Johns, 2006: A five-year climatology of elevated severe
convective storms in the United States east of the Rocky
Mountains. Wea. Forecasting, submitted. [Available
online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/horganetal.pdf]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., and P. J. Roebber, 2007:
The 50th anniversary of Sanders (1955): A mesoscale-model simulation
of the cold front of 17-18 April 1953. The Fred Sanders Symposium
Volume, Meteor. Monogr., Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press. (Accepted
7/20/05)[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2007: Perspectives on
Fred Sanders's research on cold fronts. The Fred Sanders Symposium
Volume, Meteor. Monogr., Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press. (Accepted
12/2/04) [PDF, text only; no
figures]
Schultz, D. M., and R. M. Friedman, 2007:
Tor Harold Percival Bergeron. New Dictionary of Scientific
Biography, N. Koertge, Ed., Charles Scribner's Sons,
in press, to appear December 2007. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/TorBergeron.pdf [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., and J. A. Knox, 2006:
Banded convection caused by frontogenesis in a conditionally,
symmetrically, and inertially unstable environment.
Mon. Wea. Rev., in press. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/schultzknox.pdf]
[PDF]
Verbout, S. M., D. M. Schultz,
L. M. Leslie, H. E. Brooks, D. Karoly, and K. Elmore, 2006: Tornado
outbreaks associated with landfalling hurricanes in the North Atlantic
basin: 1954-2004. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., in press. [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., C. C. Weiss, and
P. M. Hoffman, 2006: The synoptic regulation of dryline intensity.
Mon. Wea. Rev., in press. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/dryline.pdf]
[PDF]
Zhu, W. H., D. M. Schultz, D. W. Kennedy,
K. E. Kelleher, and N. N. Soreide, 2006: The National Severe Storms
Laboratory Historical Weather Data Archives data management and web
access system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press, to be published December 2006. [Available
online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/zhuetal.pdf]
[PDF]
Marchand, R., N. Beagley, S. Thompson, T. P. Ackerman, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: A bootstrap technique for testing the relationship between local-scale radar observations of cloud occurrence and large-scale atmospheric fields. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2813-2830. [AMS]
Doswell, C. A. III, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: On the use of indices and parameters in forecasting severe storms. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 1(3), 1-22. [Available online at http://www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/issue/view/3] [PDF]
Elmore, K. L., D. M. Schultz, and M. E. Baldwin, 2006: The behavior of synoptic-scale errors in the Eta model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3355-3366. [AMS] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2006: Comments on "Cloud-resolving model simulations of multiply-banded frontal clouds" by Pizzamei et al. (2005). Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., in press. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/pizzameicomments.pdf] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., K. M. Kanak, J. M. Straka, R. J. Trapp, B. A. Gordon, D. S. Zrnic, G. H. Bryan, A. J. Durant, T. J. Garrett, P. M. Klein, and D. K. Lilly, 2006: The mysteries of mammatus clouds: Observations and formation mechanisms. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2409-2435. [AMS] [PDF]
Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Reply. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2644. [AMS] [PDF]
Heinselman, P. L., and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Intraseasonal variability of summer storms over Arizona. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 559-578. [AMS] [PDF]
Sears-Collins, A. L., D. M. Schultz, and R. H. Johns, 2006: The spatial and temporal variability of drizzle in the United States and Canada. J. Climate, 19 3629-3639. [AMS] [PDF]
Verbout, S. M., H. E. Brooks, L. M. Leslie, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Evolution of the U.S. tornado database: 1954-2004. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 86-93. [AMS] [PDF]
Ware, E. C., D. M. Schultz, H. E. Brooks, P. J. Roebber, and S. L. Bruening, 2006: Improving snowfall forecasting by accounting for the climatological variability of snow density. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 94-103. [AMS] [PDF]
Gochis, D., and Coauthors, 2005: Meeting summary of the UCAR/NCAR Junior Faculty Forum on Future Scientific Directions: The water cycle across scales working group. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1743-1746. [AMS] [PDF]
Elmore, K. L, M. E. Baldwin, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Field significance revisited: Spatial bias errors in forecasts as applied to the Eta model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 519-531. [AMS] [PDF]
Van Den Broeke, M. S., D. M. Schultz, R. H. Johns, J. S. Evans, and J. E. Hales, 2005: Cloud-to-ground lightning production in strongly forced, low-instability convective lines associated with damaging wind. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 517-530. [AMS] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2005: A review of cold fronts with prefrontal troughs and wind shifts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 2449-2472. [AMS] [PDF]
Banacos, P. C., and D. M. Schultz, 2005: The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational perspectives. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 351-366. [AMS] [PDF]
Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 2005: Contraction rate and its relationship to frontogenesis, the Lyapunov exponent, fluid trapping, and airstream boundaries. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1353-1369. [AMS] [PDF]
Brown, R. A., B. A. Flickinger, E. Forren, D. M. Schultz, D. Sirmans, P. L. Spencer, V. T. Wood, and C. L. Ziegler, 2005: Improved detection of severe storms using experimental high-resolution WSR-88D measurements. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 3-14. [AMS] [PDF]
Burke, P. C., and D. M. Schultz, 2004: A 4-yr climatology of cold-season bow echoes over the continental United States. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 1061-1074. (2004 Yoshi Sasaki Award for Best M.S. Thesis Publication, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma) [AMS] [HTML] [PDF]
Roebber, P. J., D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud, 2004: Toward improved prediction: High-resolution and ensemble modeling systems in operations. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 936-949. [AMS] [HTML] [PDF]
Metz, N. D., D. M. Schultz, and R. H. Johns, 2004: Extratropical cyclones with multiple warm-front-like baroclinic zones and their relationship to severe convective storms. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 907-916. [AMS] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2004: Cold fronts with and without prefrontal wind shifts in the central United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2040-2053. [AMS] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2004: Historical research in the atmospheric sciences:
The value of literature reviews, libraries, and librarians.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
85, 995-999. [AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., D. S. Arndt, D. J. Stensrud, and J. W. Hanna, 2004:
Snowbands during the cold-air outbreak of 23 January 2003.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 827-842. [AMS]
[PDF]
[ANIMATIONS]
Schultz, D. M., and R. J. Trapp, 2003: Nonclassical cold-frontal structure caused by dry subcloud air in northern Utah during the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX). Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2222-2246. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML] (First Annual CIMMS Outstanding Paper Award, 2005)
Brooks, H., C. Doswell III, D. Dowell, R. Holle, B. Johns,
D. Jorgensen, D. Schultz, D. Stensrud, S. Weiss, L. Wicker, and
D. Zaras, 2003: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Handbook of
Weather, Climate, and Water: Dynamics, Climate, Physical Meteorology,
Weather Systems, and Measurements. T. D. Potter and B. R. Colman,
Eds., Wiley-Interscience, 575-619.
Roebber, P. J., S. L. Bruening,
D. M. Schultz, and J. V. Cortinas Jr., 2003: Improving snowfall
forecasting by diagnosing snow density. Wea. Forecasting,
18, 264-287. [AMS] [PDF]
[HTML]
Schultz, D. M., and F. Sanders, 2002: Upper-level frontogenesis
associated with the birth of mobile troughs in northwesterly flow.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2593-2610. [AMS]
[PDF]
[HTML]
Roebber, P. J., D. M. Schultz, and R. Romero, 2002: Synoptic
regulation of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak.
Wea. Forecasting, 17, 399-429. [AMS]
[PDF]
[HTML]
Schultz, D. M., J. V. Cortinas Jr., and C. A. Doswell III, 2002: Comments on ``An operational ingredients-based methodology for forecasting midlatitude winter season precipitation.'' Wea. Forecasting, 17, 160-167. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., W. J. Steenburgh, R. J. Trapp, J. Horel, D. E. Kingsmill, L. B. Dunn, W. D. Rust, L. Cheng, A. Bansemer, J. Cox, J. Daugherty, D. P. Jorgensen, J. Meitin, L. Showell, B. F Smull, K. Tarp, and M. Trainor, 2002: Understanding Utah winter storms: The Intermountain Precipitation Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 189-210. [AMS] [PDF] [PDF-extended online version] [HTML-extended version]
Godfrey, C. M., D. S. Wilks, and D. M. Schultz, 2002: Is the January Thaw a statistical phantom? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 53-62. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., 2001: Reexamining the cold conveyor belt. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2205-2225. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Trapp, R. J., D. M. Schultz, A. V. Ryzhkov, and R. L. Holle, 2001: Multiscale structure and evolution of an Oklahoma winter precipition event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 486-501. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., P. N. Schumacher, and C. A. Doswell III, 2000: The intricacies of instabilities. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 4143-4148. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., and C. A. Doswell III, 2000: Analyzing and forecasting Rocky Mountain lee cyclogenesis often associated with strong winds. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 152-173. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., 1999: Lake-effect snowstorms in northern Utah and western New York with and without lightning. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 1023-1031. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., and C. A. Doswell III, 1999: Conceptual models of upper-level frontogenesis in southwesterly and northwesterly flow. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2535-2562. [QJRMS] [HTML] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., and P. N. Schumacher, 1999: The use and misuse of conditional symmetric instability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2709-2732; Corrigendum, 128, 1573. [AMS] [Corrigendum] [PDF] [PDF of Corrigendum] [HTML]
Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., and D. M. Schultz, 1999: Comments on ``The intensification of the low-level jet during the development of mesoscale convective systems on a mei-yu front.'' Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2227-2231. [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., and W. J. Steenburgh, 1999: The formation of a forward-tilting cold front with multiple cloud bands during Superstorm 1993. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1108-1124. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Gyakum, J. R., L. F. Bosart, and D. M. Schultz, 1999: The Tenth Cyclone Workshop.Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 285-290. [Pictures from the Tenth Cyclone Workshop]
Steenburgh, W. J., Schultz, D. M., and B. A. Colle, 1998: The
structure and evolution of gap outflow over the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
Mexico. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2673-2691.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 1998: The effect of
large-scale flow on low-level frontal structure and evolution in
midlatitude cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1767-1791.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 1998: Does it rain more often on weekends? Annals of Improbable Research, 4(2), 29. [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, and L. F. Bosart, 1998: Planetary- and synoptic-scale signals associated with Central American cold surges. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 5-27. [AMS] [PDF]
Dickinson, M. J., L. F. Bosart, W. E. Bracken, G. J. Hakim, D. M. Schultz, M. A. Bedrick, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The March 1993 Superstorm cyclogenesis: Incipient phase synoptic- and convective-scale flow interaction and model performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3041-3072. [AMS] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, L. F. Bosart, G. J. Hakim,
M. A. Bedrick, M. J. Dickinson, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The 1993
Superstorm cold surge: Frontal structure, gap flow, and tropical
impact. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 5-39; Corrigenda,
125, 662.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Bosart, L. F., G. J. Hakim, K. R. Tyle, M. A. Bedrick, W. E. Bracken,
M. J. Dickinson, and D. M. Schultz, 1996: Large-scale antecedant
conditions associated with the 12-14 March 1993 cyclone ("Superstorm
'93") over Eastern North America. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
124, 1865-1891.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 1996: ``Cyclones, Midlatitude'' and ``Occluded Fronts''. Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, S. H. Schneider, Ed., Oxford University Press, 226-231, 544-546.
Bleck, R., H. Bluestein, L. Bosart, W. E. Bracken, T. Carlson, J. Chapman, M. Dickinson, J. R. Gyakum, G. Hakim, E. Hoffman, H. Iskenderian, D. Keyser, G. Lackmann, W. Nuss, P. Roebber, F. Sanders, D. Schultz, K. Tyle, and P. Zwack, 1993: Eighth Cyclone Workshop scientific summary, Val Morin, Quebec, Canada, 12-16 October 1992. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 1361-1373.
Schultz, D. M., and C. F. Mass, 1993. The occlusion process in a midlatitude cyclone over land. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 918-940. [AMS] [PDF]
Mass, C. F., and D. M. Schultz, 1993. The structure and evolution of a simulated midlatitude cyclone over land. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 889-917. [AMS] [PDF]
Mass, C. F., W. J. Steenburgh, and D. M. Schultz, 1991: The diurnal and semi-diurnal surface pressure signal across the conterminous United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 2814-2830. [AMS] [PDF]
Wilkens, R., Schultz, D., and Carlson, R., 1988: Relationship of
resistivity, velocity, and porosity for basalts from downhole
well-logging measurements in Hole 418A. Salisbury, M. H., Scott,
J. H., et al., Eds., Proc. of the Ocean Drilling Project,
Scientific Results, 102, 69-75.
Horgan, K. L., D. M. Schultz, R. H. Johns, S. F. Corfidi, and J. E. Hales, 2006: A five-year climatology of elevated severe convective storms in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Severe Local Storms Special Symposium. Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P1.22. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/horganetal2006.pdf.]
Verbout, S. M., L. M. Leslie, H. E. Brooks, D. Schultz, and D. Karoly, 2005: Tornado outbreaks associated with land-falling tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Preprints, Sixth Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes. San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 7.1. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/verboutetal.pdf.]
Banacos, P. C., and D. M. Schultz, 2004: Moisture flux convergence: Its history and application in convective initiation forecasting. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, CD-ROM, 11A.1. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/mfc-slspreprint.pdf.]
Brown, R., B. Flickinger, E. Forren, D. Schultz, P. Spencer, V. Wood, and C. Ziegler, 2004: Experimental high-resolution WSR-88D measurements in severe storms. Preprints, 20th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems, Seattle, WA. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/brownetal04-IIPS.pdf.]
Sears-Collins, A. L., D. M. Schultz, and R. H. Johns, 2003: The temporal and spatial variability of drizzle in North America. Preprints, Symposium on Observing and Understanding the Variability of Water in Weather and Climate. Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/drizzle/drizzleamspprint.pdf.]
Schultz, D. M., 2002: The challenges of accurate snowfall forecasts: Implications for observing strategies and future research efforts. Ninth Annual Workshop on Weather Prediction in the Intermountain West, 7 November 2002, Salt Lake City, Utah.
Schultz, D., P. Roebber, E. Ware, S. Bruening, and H. Brooks, 2003: The challenges of accurate snowfall density forecasts: Implications for observing strategies, snowfall predictions, and future research efforts. Symposium on Observing and Understanding the Variability of Water in Weather and Climate. Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [AMS]
Elmore, K. L., M. E. Baldwin, and D. M. Schultz, 2002: Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model. 15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, 93-96.
Schrage, J. M., C. A. Clayson, D. M. Schultz, and R. J. Machtmes, 2002: Ocean model simulations of a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [PDF]
MacKeen, P. L., and D. M. Schultz, 2002: Summertime storm initiation and evolution in Central Arizona. 19th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, San Antonio, TX, J33-J36.
Schultz, D. M., P. J. Roebber, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud, 2002: The risks and rewards of high-resolution and ensemble modeling systems. European Geophysical Society Meeting, Nice, France.
Schumacher, R. S., and D. M. Schultz, 2001: Upper-tropospheric inertial instability: Climatology and possible relationship to severe weather predictability. Preprints, Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 372-375.
MacKeen, P. L., K. W. Howard, and D. M. Schultz, 2001: Initiation and evolution of summertime storms in Central Arizona. 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, 676-678. [AMS]
Cohen, R., and D. M. Schultz, 2000: The relationship between fronts and airstream boundaries. 11th Cyclone Workshop, 28 August 2000, Monterey, CA.
Connors, J., and D. Schultz, 2000: Damaging wind gusts during the 10 November 1998 squall line over the central US. Symposium on The Mystery of Severe Storms: A Tribute to the Work of T. Theodore Fujita. Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [AMS]
Decker, S. G., Schultz, D. M., and C. A. Doswell III, 1998: Synoptic-scale signals associated with flash floods. 19th Conference on Severe Local Storms, 16-17 June 1998 Minneapolis, MN, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 1997: The effect of large-scale flow on airstreams and airstream boundaries in midlatitude cyclones. Tenth Cyclone Workshop, 21-26 September 1997, Val Morin, Quebec, Canada.
Schultz, D., L. Koppel, and E. Hoffman, 1994: Investigations of an upper-level frontal zone using the Wyoming King Air. 19th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference: 11-13 March 1994, Saratoga Springs, NY.
Beatty, J., D. Dooley, C. Ferguson, M. Hostetler, and D. Schultz,
1983: Acid mine drainage in a western PA stream. Journal of the
Pennsylvania School for the Sciences, 1, 41-56.
Schultz: Winter-Weather Research at the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Operation Sierra Storm, Lake Tahoe, California, (11 January 2001).
Schultz, Steenburgh, Trapp, Kingsmill, Dunn, Horel 2000: Preliminary results from the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment. Seventh Annual Workshop on Weather Prediction in the Intermountain West, Salt Lake City, Utah, (3 November 2000).
Schultz, Steenburgh, Trapp, Kingsmill, and Dunn: Preliminary Results from the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment. Ninth Mountain Meteorology Conference, Aspen, CO, (10 August 2000).
Schultz: Winter Weather Research at NSSL. Operation Sierra Storm, Lake Tahoe, NV, (January 2000).
Schultz and Schumacher: The Use and Misuse of Conditional Symmetric Instability. COMET Webcast(August 1999).
Schultz: NSSL. University of Utah undergraduate MET class.
Schultz: Selected Topics on the Synoptic and Mesoscale Weather of the Western United States. SPC Winter Weather Training (27 August 1997).
Department of Meteorology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah: Fall 2002.
Sabbatical. Taught synoptic meteorology and map discussion classes.
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies and
National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK: August
1998-present.
Research Meteorologist
National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK: August
1996-August 1998.
National Research Council Postdoctoral Research
Associate. Principal research effort directed towards understanding
frontal/cyclone structure of the western United States.
SUNY Albany, Albany, NY: 1991-1995.
Teaching assistant: fall 1991 and spring 1992 for ATM 100
(Introduction to the Atmosphere). Instructor: summer 1993 and summer
1995 for ATM 100, fall 1992 and fall 1993 for ATM 400 (Synoptic
Meteorology I).
WGY Radio 810, Schenectady, NY: 1992-Jan. 1994
Prepared taped and live weather forecasts.
Bellevue Community College, Bellevue, WA: Spring 1991
Instructor for Meteorology 101.
University of Washington, Seattle, WA: 1989-1991.
Teaching assistant: winter 1989 and spring 1991 for ATMS 101 (Introduction to
the Atmosphere).
Student Athlete Services, Seattle, WA: March 1988-June 1991
Tutored student-athletes in atmospheric sciences, calculus, physics,
geology, oceanography, and differential equations.
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA:
Summer 1987
Participated in group research relating to modelling the longwave
energy balance in the atmosphere and the parameters which affect this
radiation. Modified climate programs in FORTRAN.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Feb. 1986-Aug.
1987
Earth Resources Laboratory: Research Student
Analysed computer well-log data from basalts and determined
relationships between porosity, sonic wave velocity, and geologic
structure.
Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Boston, MA: Summer 1986
Dept. of Environmental Quality Engineering, Div. of Solid and
Hazardous Waste
Developed a policy for the environmentally safe disposal of dredged
materials.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Nov. 1984-Oct.
1985
Dept. of Earth, Atmosphere, and Planetary Sciences: Lab
Assistant
Prepared geologic samples from the Mediterranean for various
geochemical analyses.
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA: July-Aug.
1982
Selected to attend the Pennsylvania School for the Sciences
and participated in group research on mine drainage
chemistry.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
room: MWC 4360
phone: (405) 325-6136
fax: no fax number yet
David.Schultz@noaa.gov
M.S., December 1990:
University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric
Sciences.
Advisor: Prof. Cliff
Mass
B.S., June 1987: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmosphere and Planetary Science.
Yoshi Sasaki Award for Best M.S. Thesis Publication, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 2004: Burke and Schultz (2004): "A 4-yr climatology of cold-season bow echoes over the continental United States"
First Annual CIMMS Outstanding Paper Award, 2005: Schultz and Trapp (2003): "Nonclassical cold-frontal structure caused by dry subcloud air in northern Utah during the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX)"
NOAATech 2006 Best Presentation: Interactive Web Access to Historical Weather Data Archives. Willa Zhu, David Schultz, Kevin Kelleher, and Nancy Soreide
Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma: 2003-2005.
Adjunct Assistant Professor, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma: 1999-2002.
Editor, Monthly Weather Review: 2004-present.
Associate Editor, Monthly Weather Review: 1999-2001.
Assistant Editor and Co-Founder, Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology: 2005-present.
National Weather Service Forecaster: 2002 Winter Olympic Games.
AMS Mesoscale Committee, 2002-2005.
AMS Weather Analysis and Forecasting Committee, 2005-present.
American Meteorological Society, 1985-present
Sigma Xi, 1997-present
International Commission on History, 2001-present
Schultz, D. M., and F. Zhang, 2006:
Baroclinic development within zonally varying flows.
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., submitted. [Available online at
http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/schultz-zhang.pdf]
Stuart, N. A., D. M. Schultz, and
G. Klein, 2006: Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of
the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive psychological
aspects of expert weather forecasters. Wea. Forecasting, submitted. [Available
online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/stuart_part2.pdf]
Barnes, L. R., E. C. Gruntfest, M,
H. Hayden, D. M. Schultz, and C. Benight, 2006: False alarms and close
calls: A conceptual model of warning accuracy.
Wea. Forecasting, submitted. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/barnesetal.pdf]
Schultz, D. M., K. Seitter, L. Bosart,
C. Gorski, and C. Iovinella, 2006: Factors affecting the increasing
costs of AMS Conferences.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., submitted. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/Schultzetal-AMSConfCosts.pdf] [PDF]
Hanna, J. W., D. M. Schultz, and
A. R. Irving, 2006: Cloud-top temperatures for precipitating winter clouds.
J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., submitted. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/hannaetal.pdf]
[PDF]
Horgan, K. L., D. M. Schultz, J. E. Hales, S. F. Corfidi, and
R. H. Johns, 2006: A five-year climatology of elevated severe
convective storms in the United States east of the Rocky
Mountains. Wea. Forecasting, submitted. [Available
online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/horganetal.pdf]
[PDF]
Doswell, C. A. III, and D. M. Schultz,
2006: On the use of indices and parameters in forecasting severe
storms. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., in press. [Available
online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/doswell_schultz_indices.pdf]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., and P. J. Roebber, 2007:
The 50th anniversary of Sanders (1955): A mesoscale-model simulation
of the cold front of 17-18 April 1953. The Fred Sanders Symposium
Volume, Meteor. Monogr., Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press. (Accepted
7/20/05)[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2007: Perspectives on
Fred Sanders's research on cold fronts. The Fred Sanders Symposium
Volume, Meteor. Monogr., Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press. (Accepted
12/2/04) [PDF, text only; no
figures]
Schultz, D. M., and R. M. Friedman, 2007:
Tor Harold Percival Bergeron. New Dictionary of Scientific
Biography, N. Koertge, Ed., Charles Scribner's Sons,
in press, to appear December 2007. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/TorBergeron.pdf [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., and J. A. Knox, 2006:
Banded convection caused by frontogenesis in a conditionally,
symmetrically, and inertially unstable environment.
Mon. Wea. Rev., in press. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/schultzknox.pdf]
[PDF]
Verbout, S. M., D. M. Schultz,
L. M. Leslie, H. E. Brooks, D. Karoly, and K. Elmore, 2006: Tornado
outbreaks associated with landfalling hurricanes in the North Atlantic
basin: 1954-2004. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., in press. [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., C. C. Weiss, and
P. M. Hoffman, 2006: The synoptic regulation of dryline intensity.
Mon. Wea. Rev., in press. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/dryline.pdf]
[PDF]
Zhu, W. H., D. M. Schultz, D. W. Kennedy,
K. E. Kelleher, and N. N. Soreide, 2006: The National Severe Storms
Laboratory Historical Weather Data Archives data management and web
access system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press, to be published December 2006. [Available
online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/zhuetal.pdf]
[PDF]
Marchand, R., N. Beagley, S. Thompson,
T. P. Ackerman, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: A bootstrap technique for
testing the relationship between local-scale radar observations of
cloud occurrence and large-scale atmospheric fields.
J. Atmos. Sci., in press.
Elmore, K. L., D. M. Schultz, and M. E. Baldwin, 2006: The behavior of synoptic-scale errors in the Eta model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3355-3366. [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2006: Comments on
"Cloud-resolving model simulations of multiply-banded frontal clouds"
by Pizzamei et al. (2005). Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc.,
in press. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/pizzameicomments.pdf]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., K. M. Kanak,
J. M. Straka, R. J. Trapp, B. A. Gordon, D. S. Zrnic, G. H. Bryan,
A. J. Durant, T. J. Garrett, P. M. Klein, and D. K. Lilly, 2006: The
mysteries of mammatus clouds: Observations and formation mechanisms.
J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2409-2435. [Available online at http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/mammatus.pdf
[PDF]
Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Reply. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2644. [AMS] [PDF]
Heinselman, P. L., and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Intraseasonal variability of summer storms over Arizona. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 559-578. [AMS] [PDF]
Sears-Collins, A. L., D. M. Schultz, and R. H. Johns, 2006: The spatial and temporal variability of drizzle in the United States and Canada. J. Climate, 19 3629-3639. [AMS] [PDF]
Verbout, S. M., H. E. Brooks, L. M. Leslie, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Evolution of the U.S. tornado database: 1954-2004. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 86-93. [AMS] [PDF]
Ware, E. C., D. M. Schultz, H. E. Brooks, P. J. Roebber, and S. L. Bruening, 2006: Improving snowfall forecasting by accounting for the climatological variability of snow density. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 94-103. [AMS] [PDF]
Gochis, D., and Coauthors, 2005: Meeting summary of the UCAR/NCAR Junior Faculty Forum on Future Scientific Directions: The water cycle across scales working group. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1743-1746. [AMS] [PDF]
Elmore, K. L, M. E. Baldwin, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Field significance revisited: Spatial bias errors in forecasts as applied to the Eta model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 519-531. [AMS] [PDF]
Van Den Broeke, M. S., D. M. Schultz, R. H. Johns, J. S. Evans, and J. E. Hales, 2005: Cloud-to-ground lightning production in strongly forced, low-instability convective lines associated with damaging wind. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 517-530. [AMS] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2005: A review of cold fronts with prefrontal troughs and wind shifts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 2449-2472. [AMS] [PDF]
Banacos, P. C., and D. M. Schultz, 2005: The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational perspectives. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 351-366. [AMS] [PDF]
Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 2005: Contraction rate and its relationship to frontogenesis, the Lyapunov exponent, fluid trapping, and airstream boundaries. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1353-1369. [AMS] [PDF]
Brown, R. A., B. A. Flickinger, E. Forren, D. M. Schultz, D. Sirmans, P. L. Spencer, V. T. Wood, and C. L. Ziegler, 2005: Improved detection of severe storms using experimental high-resolution WSR-88D measurements. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 3-14. [AMS] [PDF]
Burke, P. C., and D. M. Schultz, 2004: A 4-yr climatology of cold-season bow echoes over the continental United States. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 1061-1074. (2004 Yoshi Sasaki Award for Best M.S. Thesis Publication, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma) [AMS] [HTML] [PDF]
Roebber, P. J., D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud, 2004: Toward improved prediction: High-resolution and ensemble modeling systems in operations. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 936-949. [AMS] [HTML] [PDF]
Metz, N. D., D. M. Schultz, and R. H. Johns, 2004: Extratropical cyclones with multiple warm-front-like baroclinic zones and their relationship to severe convective storms. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 907-916. [AMS] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2004: Cold fronts with and without prefrontal wind shifts in the central United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2040-2053. [AMS] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 2004: Historical research in the atmospheric sciences:
The value of literature reviews, libraries, and librarians.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
85, 995-999. [AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., D. S. Arndt, D. J. Stensrud, and J. W. Hanna, 2004:
Snowbands during the cold-air outbreak of 23 January 2003.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 827-842. [AMS]
[PDF]
[ANIMATIONS]
Schultz, D. M., and R. J. Trapp, 2003: Nonclassical cold-frontal structure caused by dry subcloud air in northern Utah during the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX). Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2222-2246. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML] (First Annual CIMMS Outstanding Paper Award, 2005)
Brooks, H., C. Doswell III, D. Dowell, R. Holle, B. Johns,
D. Jorgensen, D. Schultz, D. Stensrud, S. Weiss, L. Wicker, and
D. Zaras, 2003: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Handbook of
Weather, Climate, and Water: Dynamics, Climate, Physical Meteorology,
Weather Systems, and Measurements. T. D. Potter and B. R. Colman,
Eds., Wiley-Interscience, 575-619.
Roebber, P. J., S. L. Bruening,
D. M. Schultz, and J. V. Cortinas Jr., 2003: Improving snowfall
forecasting by diagnosing snow density. Wea. Forecasting,
18, 264-287. [AMS] [PDF]
[HTML]
Schultz, D. M., and F. Sanders, 2002: Upper-level frontogenesis
associated with the birth of mobile troughs in northwesterly flow.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2593-2610. [AMS]
[PDF]
[HTML]
Roebber, P. J., D. M. Schultz, and R. Romero, 2002: Synoptic
regulation of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak.
Wea. Forecasting, 17, 399-429. [AMS]
[PDF]
[HTML]
Schultz, D. M., J. V. Cortinas Jr., and C. A. Doswell III, 2002: Comments on ``An operational ingredients-based methodology for forecasting midlatitude winter season precipitation.'' Wea. Forecasting, 17, 160-167. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., W. J. Steenburgh, R. J. Trapp, J. Horel, D. E. Kingsmill, L. B. Dunn, W. D. Rust, L. Cheng, A. Bansemer, J. Cox, J. Daugherty, D. P. Jorgensen, J. Meitin, L. Showell, B. F Smull, K. Tarp, and M. Trainor, 2002: Understanding Utah winter storms: The Intermountain Precipitation Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 189-210. [AMS] [PDF] [PDF-extended online version] [HTML-extended version]
Godfrey, C. M., D. S. Wilks, and D. M. Schultz, 2002: Is the January Thaw a statistical phantom? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 53-62. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., 2001: Reexamining the cold conveyor belt. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2205-2225. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Trapp, R. J., D. M. Schultz, A. V. Ryzhkov, and R. L. Holle, 2001: Multiscale structure and evolution of an Oklahoma winter precipition event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 486-501. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., P. N. Schumacher, and C. A. Doswell III, 2000: The intricacies of instabilities. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 4143-4148. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., and C. A. Doswell III, 2000: Analyzing and forecasting Rocky Mountain lee cyclogenesis often associated with strong winds. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 152-173. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., 1999: Lake-effect snowstorms in northern Utah and western New York with and without lightning. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 1023-1031. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., and C. A. Doswell III, 1999: Conceptual models of upper-level frontogenesis in southwesterly and northwesterly flow. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2535-2562. [QJRMS] [HTML] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., and P. N. Schumacher, 1999: The use and misuse of conditional symmetric instability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2709-2732; Corrigendum, 128, 1573. [AMS] [Corrigendum] [PDF] [PDF of Corrigendum] [HTML]
Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., and D. M. Schultz, 1999: Comments on ``The intensification of the low-level jet during the development of mesoscale convective systems on a mei-yu front.'' Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2227-2231. [PDF] [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., and W. J. Steenburgh, 1999: The formation of a forward-tilting cold front with multiple cloud bands during Superstorm 1993. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1108-1124. [AMS] [PDF] [HTML]
Gyakum, J. R., L. F. Bosart, and D. M. Schultz, 1999: The Tenth Cyclone Workshop.Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 285-290. [Pictures from the Tenth Cyclone Workshop]
Steenburgh, W. J., Schultz, D. M., and B. A. Colle, 1998: The
structure and evolution of gap outflow over the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
Mexico. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2673-2691.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 1998: The effect of
large-scale flow on low-level frontal structure and evolution in
midlatitude cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1767-1791.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 1998: Does it rain more often on weekends? Annals of Improbable Research, 4(2), 29. [HTML]
Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, and L. F. Bosart, 1998: Planetary- and synoptic-scale signals associated with Central American cold surges. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 5-27. [AMS] [PDF]
Dickinson, M. J., L. F. Bosart, W. E. Bracken, G. J. Hakim, D. M. Schultz, M. A. Bedrick, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The March 1993 Superstorm cyclogenesis: Incipient phase synoptic- and convective-scale flow interaction and model performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3041-3072. [AMS] [PDF]
Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, L. F. Bosart, G. J. Hakim,
M. A. Bedrick, M. J. Dickinson, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The 1993
Superstorm cold surge: Frontal structure, gap flow, and tropical
impact. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 5-39; Corrigenda,
125, 662.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Bosart, L. F., G. J. Hakim, K. R. Tyle, M. A. Bedrick, W. E. Bracken,
M. J. Dickinson, and D. M. Schultz, 1996: Large-scale antecedant
conditions associated with the 12-14 March 1993 cyclone ("Superstorm
'93") over Eastern North America. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
124, 1865-1891.
[AMS]
[PDF]
Schultz, D. M., 1996: ``Cyclones, Midlatitude'' and ``Occluded Fronts''. Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, S. H. Schneider, Ed., Oxford University Press, 226-231, 544-546.
Bleck, R., H. Bluestein, L. Bosart, W. E. Bracken, T. Carlson, J. Chapman, M. Dickinson, J. R. Gyakum, G. Hakim, E. Hoffman, H. Iskenderian, D. Keyser, G. Lackmann, W. Nuss, P. Roebber, F. Sanders, D. Schultz, K. Tyle, and P. Zwack, 1993: Eighth Cyclone Workshop scientific summary, Val Morin, Quebec, Canada, 12-16 October 1992. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 1361-1373.
Schultz, D. M., and C. F. Mass, 1993. The occlusion process in a midlatitude cyclone over land. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 918-940. [AMS] [PDF]
Mass, C. F., and D. M. Schultz, 1993. The structure and evolution of a simulated midlatitude cyclone over land. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 889-917. [AMS] [PDF]
Mass, C. F., W. J. Steenburgh, and D. M. Schultz, 1991: The diurnal and semi-diurnal surface pressure signal across the conterminous United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 2814-2830. [AMS] [PDF]
Wilkens, R., Schultz, D., and Carlson, R., 1988: Relationship of
resistivity, velocity, and porosity for basalts from downhole
well-logging measurements in Hole 418A. Salisbury, M. H., Scott,
J. H., et al., Eds., Proc. of the Ocean Drilling Project,
Scientific Results, 102, 69-75.
Horgan, K. L., D. M. Schultz, R. H. Johns, S. F. Corfidi, and J. E. Hales, 2006: A five-year climatology of elevated severe convective storms in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Severe Local Storms Special Symposium. Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P1.22. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/horganetal2006.pdf.]
Verbout, S. M., L. M. Leslie, H. E. Brooks, D. Schultz, and D. Karoly, 2005: Tornado outbreaks associated with land-falling tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Preprints, Sixth Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes. San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 7.1. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/verboutetal.pdf.]
Banacos, P. C., and D. M. Schultz, 2004: Moisture flux convergence: Its history and application in convective initiation forecasting. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, CD-ROM, 11A.1. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/mfc-slspreprint.pdf.]
Brown, R., B. Flickinger, E. Forren, D. Schultz, P. Spencer, V. Wood, and C. Ziegler, 2004: Experimental high-resolution WSR-88D measurements in severe storms. Preprints, 20th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems, Seattle, WA. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/brownetal04-IIPS.pdf.]
Sears-Collins, A. L., D. M. Schultz, and R. H. Johns, 2003: The temporal and spatial variability of drizzle in North America. Preprints, Symposium on Observing and Understanding the Variability of Water in Weather and Climate. Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [Available from http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/drizzle/drizzleamspprint.pdf.]
Schultz, D. M., 2002: The challenges of accurate snowfall forecasts: Implications for observing strategies and future research efforts. Ninth Annual Workshop on Weather Prediction in the Intermountain West, 7 November 2002, Salt Lake City, Utah.
Schultz, D., P. Roebber, E. Ware, S. Bruening, and H. Brooks, 2003: The challenges of accurate snowfall density forecasts: Implications for observing strategies, snowfall predictions, and future research efforts. Symposium on Observing and Understanding the Variability of Water in Weather and Climate. Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [AMS]
Elmore, K. L., M. E. Baldwin, and D. M. Schultz, 2002: Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model. 15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, 93-96.
Schrage, J. M., C. A. Clayson, D. M. Schultz, and R. J. Machtmes, 2002: Ocean model simulations of a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [PDF]
MacKeen, P. L., and D. M. Schultz, 2002: Summertime storm initiation and evolution in Central Arizona. 19th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, San Antonio, TX, J33-J36.
Schultz, D. M., P. J. Roebber, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud, 2002: The risks and rewards of high-resolution and ensemble modeling systems. European Geophysical Society Meeting, Nice, France.
Schumacher, R. S., and D. M. Schultz, 2001: Upper-tropospheric inertial instability: Climatology and possible relationship to severe weather predictability. Preprints, Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 372-375.
MacKeen, P. L., K. W. Howard, and D. M. Schultz, 2001: Initiation and evolution of summertime storms in Central Arizona. 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, 676-678. [AMS]
Cohen, R., and D. M. Schultz, 2000: The relationship between fronts and airstream boundaries. 11th Cyclone Workshop, 28 August 2000, Monterey, CA.
Connors, J., and D. Schultz, 2000: Damaging wind gusts during the 10 November 1998 squall line over the central US. Symposium on The Mystery of Severe Storms: A Tribute to the Work of T. Theodore Fujita. Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [AMS]
Decker, S. G., Schultz, D. M., and C. A. Doswell III, 1998: Synoptic-scale signals associated with flash floods. 19th Conference on Severe Local Storms, 16-17 June 1998 Minneapolis, MN, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 1997: The effect of large-scale flow on airstreams and airstream boundaries in midlatitude cyclones. Tenth Cyclone Workshop, 21-26 September 1997, Val Morin, Quebec, Canada.
Schultz, D., L. Koppel, and E. Hoffman, 1994: Investigations of an upper-level frontal zone using the Wyoming King Air. 19th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference: 11-13 March 1994, Saratoga Springs, NY.
Beatty, J., D. Dooley, C. Ferguson, M. Hostetler, and D. Schultz,
1983: Acid mine drainage in a western PA stream. Journal of the
Pennsylvania School for the Sciences, 1, 41-56.
Schultz: Winter-Weather Research at the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Operation Sierra Storm, Lake Tahoe, California, (11 January 2001).
Schultz, Steenburgh, Trapp, Kingsmill, Dunn, Horel 2000: Preliminary results from the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment. Seventh Annual Workshop on Weather Prediction in the Intermountain West, Salt Lake City, Utah, (3 November 2000).
Schultz, Steenburgh, Trapp, Kingsmill, and Dunn: Preliminary Results from the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment. Ninth Mountain Meteorology Conference, Aspen, CO, (10 August 2000).
Schultz: Winter Weather Research at NSSL. Operation Sierra Storm, Lake Tahoe, NV, (January 2000).
Schultz and Schumacher: The Use and Misuse of Conditional Symmetric Instability. COMET Webcast(August 1999).
Schultz: NSSL. University of Utah undergraduate MET class.
Schultz: Selected Topics on the Synoptic and Mesoscale Weather of the Western United States. SPC Winter Weather Training (27 August 1997).
National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK: August
1996-August 1998.
National Research Council Postdoctoral Research
Associate. Principal research effort directed towards understanding
frontal/cyclone structure of the western United States.
SUNY Albany, Albany, NY: 1991-1995.
Teaching assistant: fall 1991 and spring 1992 for ATM 100
(Introduction to the Atmosphere). Instructor: summer 1993 and summer
1995 for ATM 100, fall 1992 and fall 1993 for ATM 400 (Synoptic
Meteorology I).
WGY Radio 810, Schenectady, NY: 1992-Jan. 1994
Prepared taped and live weather forecasts.
Bellevue Community College, Bellevue, WA: Spring 1991
Instructor for Meteorology 101.
University of Washington, Seattle, WA: 1989-1991.
Teaching assistant: winter 1989 and spring 1991 for ATMS 101 (Introduction to
the Atmosphere).
Student Athlete Services, Seattle, WA: March 1988-June 1991
Tutored student-athletes in atmospheric sciences, calculus, physics,
geology, oceanography, and differential equations.
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA:
Summer 1987
Participated in group research relating to modelling the longwave
energy balance in the atmosphere and the parameters which affect this
radiation. Modified climate programs in FORTRAN.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Feb. 1986-Aug.
1987
Earth Resources Laboratory: Research Student
Analysed computer well-log data from basalts and determined
relationships between porosity, sonic wave velocity, and geologic
structure.
Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Boston, MA: Summer 1986
Dept. of Environmental Quality Engineering, Div. of Solid and
Hazardous Waste
Developed a policy for the environmentally safe disposal of dredged
materials.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Nov. 1984-Oct.
1985
Dept. of Earth, Atmosphere, and Planetary Sciences: Lab
Assistant
Prepared geologic samples from the Mediterranean for various
geochemical analyses.
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA: July-Aug.
1982
Selected to attend the Pennsylvania School for the Sciences
and participated in group research on mine drainage
chemistry.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
A climatology of
drizzle in the United States and Canada: with Addison
Sears-Collins of the University of Virginia.
A Climatology of Cold-Season
Bow Echoes: with Pat
Burke of the University of Oklahoma, as part of his M.S. thesis.
January Thaw: What is the nature of a climatological
warm period during late January across the Northeast United States?
Other research topics for which I haven't produced fully developed web pages yet include:
reexamining the cold conveyor belt concept
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
research.shtml 0000644 0001017 0000145 00000024652 10261335654 013351 0 ustar schultz users
THE INTERMOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION EXPERIMENT (IPEX): An investigation of the
structure, evolution, dynamics, microphysics, and precipitation
associated with orographic precipitation and lake-effect snowbands in
the Wasatch Mountains and Salt Lake Valley, Utah. My research has
been focused on IPEX IOP 4 on 14 February 2000. The cold front
associated with this storm produced a tornadic bow echo in southern
Idaho, as well as strong winds in northern Utah. We found that
evaporation/sublimation of the falling precipitation in the dry
subcloud layer (characteristic of the Great Basin) was important in
controlling the distribution of precipitation in the lowlands versus
the mountains (Schultz
and Trapp 2003). The evaporation of precipitation in the subcloud
layer was also responsible for giving the cold front an unusual
forward-tilting structure. Future research will investigate the
evolution of this weather system from landfall from over the Pacific
Ocean, through the complex terrain of the Sierra Nevada and Great
Basin, to northern Utah.
A climatology of
drizzle in the United States and Canada: with Addison
Sears-Collins of the University of Virginia.
Since 5/28/97
Number of hits:
THE INTERMOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION EXPERIMENT (IPEX): An investigation of the
structure, evolution, dynamics, microphysics, and precipitation
associated with orographic precipitation and lake-effect snowbands in
the Wasatch Mountains and Salt Lake Valley, Utah. My research has
been focused on IPEX IOP 4 on 14 February 2000. The cold front
associated with this storm produced a tornadic bow echo in southern
Idaho, as well as strong winds in northern Utah. We found that
evaporation/sublimation of the falling precipitation in the dry
subcloud layer (characteristic of the Great Basin) was important in
controlling the distribution of precipitation in the lowlands versus
the mountains (Schultz
and Trapp 2003). The evaporation of precipitation in the subcloud
layer was also responsible for giving the cold front an unusual
forward-tilting structure. Future research will investigate the
evolution of this weather system from landfall from over the Pacific
Ocean, through the complex terrain of the Sierra Nevada and Great
Basin, to northern Utah.
A climatology of
drizzle in the United States and Canada: with Addison
Sears-Collins of the University of Virginia.
Since 5/28/97
Number of hits:
Schultz and Doswell:
"Analyzing and Forecasting Rocky Mountain Lee Cyclogenesis Associated with Strong Winds"
Weather and Forecasting.
One of the techniques employed to analyze this case was to band-pass the observations of sea-level pressure, retaining features resolvable on the mesoscale. (View the filter characteristics.) Viewed in this manner, the low-pressure anomaly moves over the mountains as in idealized models of baroclinic waves interacting with mountains. [large animated gif, small animated gif, or javascript animation]. It is hoped that techniques such as band-pass filtering will help operational forecasters follow the movement of the pressure systems through regions of complex topography.
MANUSCRIPTS
Schultz and Doswell (2000): Analyzing
and Forecasting Rocky Mountain Lee Cyclogenesis Associated with
Damaging Winds. Wea. Forecasting, in press.
|HTML version|
|postscript version|
(text only)
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
Upper-Level Frontogenesis
You can view a copy of that manuscript here. If you have problems viewing the equations, try this version.
ABSTRACT
The Shapiro (1982) conceptual model as it is applied to the evolution of an upper-level frontal zone within a baroclinic wave is reviewed and its limitations are investigated through previous literature and two case studies presented herewithin. The early stages in the evolutions of these two cases are used to examine specific limitations of this conceptual model: (1) upper-level frontogenesis in southwesterly flow that evolves from a state of equivalent barotropy to a state of cold advection along the front, and (2) upper-level frontogenesis in northwesterly flow with along-front variation in the sign of the thermal advection, such that warm advection occurs upstream of cold advection in the thermal trough.
Vector-frontogenesis diagnostics for the Lagrangian rate of change of the magnitude and direction of the horizontal potential temperature gradient, including tilting due to vertical motion, are derived. These diagnostics are applied to the two cases to examine the maintenance of the potential temperature gradient and the development of cold advection along each upper-level front. The upper-level front in southwesterly (northwesterly) flow was maintained primarily by deformation (tilting) frontogenesis, in agreement with previous research. The increasing cold advection along the upper-level front in both cases was related to an upstream vorticity maximum. For the case in southwesterly flow, the preexisting vorticity maximum approached a downstream equivalent-barotropic upper-level front in a manner similar to an instant occlusion, resulting in cold advection along the length of the upper-level front. For the case in northwesterly flow, an intensifying vorticity maximum concentrated the cold advection in the base of the thermal trough, as warm advection developed upstream.
These two cases are compared to upper-level fronts in previous literature and a climatology of upper-level fronts associated with landfalling cyclones over the eastern North Pacific Ocean. The results indicate that these two cases are typical of early evolutions of upper-level fronts that can occur in southwesterly and northwesterly flow. Therefore, a revised version of the Shapiro conceptual model is presented that more accurately represents the early evolutions exhibited in the present and previous studies.
Figure 1: Revised conceptual model: Idealized schematic depiction on an upper-tropospheric isobaric surface of the early evolution of an upper-level jet--front system through a midlatitude baroclinic wave over a 12-24-h period: (a) southwesterly flow case; (b) northwesterly flow case. Geopotential height contours (solid grey lines), isentropes (solid black lines), and relative vorticity (shaded).
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
Upper-Level Frontogenesis
You can view a copy of that manuscript here. If you have problems viewing the equations, try this version.
ABSTRACT
The Shapiro (1982) conceptual model as it is applied to the evolution of an upper-level frontal zone within a baroclinic wave is reviewed and its limitations are investigated through previous literature and two case studies presented herewithin. The early stages in the evolutions of these two cases are used to examine specific limitations of this conceptual model: (1) upper-level frontogenesis in southwesterly flow that evolves from a state of equivalent barotropy to a state of cold advection along the front, and (2) upper-level frontogenesis in northwesterly flow with along-front variation in the sign of the thermal advection, such that warm advection occurs upstream of cold advection in the thermal trough.
Vector-frontogenesis diagnostics for the Lagrangian rate of change of the magnitude and direction of the horizontal potential temperature gradient, including tilting due to vertical motion, are derived. These diagnostics are applied to the two cases to examine the maintenance of the potential temperature gradient and the development of cold advection along each upper-level front. The upper-level front in southwesterly (northwesterly) flow was maintained primarily by deformation (tilting) frontogenesis, in agreement with previous research. The increasing cold advection along the upper-level front in both cases was related to an upstream vorticity maximum. For the case in southwesterly flow, the preexisting vorticity maximum approached a downstream equivalent-barotropic upper-level front in a manner similar to an instant occlusion, resulting in cold advection along the length of the upper-level front. For the case in northwesterly flow, an intensifying vorticity maximum concentrated the cold advection in the base of the thermal trough, as warm advection developed upstream.
These two cases are compared to upper-level fronts in previous literature and a climatology of upper-level fronts associated with landfalling cyclones over the eastern North Pacific Ocean. The results indicate that these two cases are typical of early evolutions of upper-level fronts that can occur in southwesterly and northwesterly flow. Therefore, a revised version of the Shapiro conceptual model is presented that more accurately represents the early evolutions exhibited in the present and previous studies.
Figure 1: Revised conceptual model: Idealized schematic depiction on an upper-tropospheric isobaric surface of the early evolution of an upper-level jet--front system through a midlatitude baroclinic wave over a 12-24-h period: (a) southwesterly flow case; (b) northwesterly flow case. Geopotential height contours (solid grey lines), isentropes (solid black lines), and relative vorticity (shaded).
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
The Superstorm of March 1993
Another research project concerns the blizzard of March 13, 1993 on the East Coast of the United States (it's been nicknamed "Superstorm '93"). Those who lived in Albany recall the 27 inches of snow that came with this storm. The project arose from Prof. Lance Bosart's course in our department in order to understand this storm better. The results of our research show how this storm was initiated at several different levels. On the largest scale, we show that the planetary-scale jet stream was responsible for bringing two disturbances together to produce the rapid development of this fantastic storm. This work is now published in the September 1996 issue of Monthly Weather Review.
At the next level, we present evidence which supports our contention that the poor forecasts for the Superstorm in the Gulf of Mexico were principally a result of the misforecast thunderstorm activity in this region. A manuscript from this aspect of the research lead-authored by Mike Dickinson from SUNY Albany has been published in the December 1997 Monthly Weather Review.
I was also interested in the cold air behind the storm's cold front. The cold front pushed all the way down to Panama, bringing a sharp temperature drop, strong northerly winds, and overcast skies. Research on cold surges is discussed on this web page.
Schultz,
D. M., and W. J. Steenburgh, 1999: The formation of a forward-tilting
cold front with multiple cloud bands during Superstorm 1993.
Monthly Weather Review, 127, 1108-1124.
Steenburgh, W. J., Schultz, D. M., and B. A. Colle, 1998: The
structure and evolution of gap outflow over the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
Mexico. Monthly Weather Review, 126,
2673-2691.
Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, and L. F. Bosart, 1998: Planetary- and
synoptic-scale signals associated with Central American cold surges.
Monthly Weather Review, 126, 5-27.
Dickinson, M. J., L. F. Bosart, W. E. Bracken, G. J. Hakim,
D. M. Schultz, M. A. Bedrick, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The March 1993
Superstorm cyclogenesis: Incipient phase synoptic- and
convective-scale flow interaction and model performance. Monthly
Weather Review, 125, 3041-3072.
Schultz,
D. M., W. E. Bracken, L. F. Bosart, G. J. Hakim, M. A. Bedrick,
M. J. Dickinson, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The 1993 Superstorm cold surge:
Frontal structure, gap flow, and tropical impact. Monthly Weather
Review, 125, 5-39; Corrigenda, 125, 662.
Bosart, L. F., G. J. Hakim, K. R. Tyle, M. A. Bedrick, W. E. Bracken,
M. J. Dickinson, and D. M. Schultz, 1996: Large-scale antecedant
conditions associated with the 12-14 March 1993 cyclone ("Superstorm
'93") over Eastern North America. Monthly Weather
Review, 124, 1865-1891.
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
My Presentation to the
Storm Prediction Center on
Winter Weather of the Western United
States
Storm Prediction Center Winter Weather Training
1999 Research Experience for Undergraduates in Norman, OK
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
Weekend Precipitation
A reprint can be found here. or here.
Map of locations with weekend precipitation events occurring more frequently than expected (2/7) are unshaded.
FEEDBACK
As a peer review journal, Nature is usually the first to report the research that appears in its pages. Just occasionally, however, the magazine gets scooped.
Thus a "news" item in the journal at the beginning of August reported that it rains more often on weekends than on weekdays. But this wasn't news to Feedback, who enjoys dipping into the humour magazine The Annals of Improbable Research.
In the March/April issue of that journal, David Schultz of the National Severe Storms Research Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma, reported the same phenomenon. Will Nature reprimand its referees for failing to notice prior publication?
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
west.shtml 0000644 0001017 0000145 00000014606 07672650030 012535 0 ustar schultz users
|
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Chuck Doswell and I have written a manuscript for Weather and Forecasting entitled "Analyzing and Forecasting Rocky Mountain Lee Cyclogenesis Associated with Strong Winds." First, we start with a case study (12-14 December 1988) of an Alberta clipper that produced numerous Storm Data reports of winds 20-30 m/s over MT, ND, WY, and SD. The movement of the surface cyclone away from the lee slopes occurred abruptly (the center of the circulation jumped 300 km in one hour). We can relate the movement of the lee cyclone away from the mountains to a mobile sea level pressure minimum (pressure check) at upstream stations. An MM5 simulation shows that this pressure minimum is associated with the height falls from the shortwave trough aloft. Thus, examining the surface pressure checks upstream of the lee slopes will help in locating the effect of the shortwave trough aloft.
One of the techniques employed to analyze this case was to band-pass the observations of sea-level pressure, retaining features resolvable on the mesoscale. (View the filter characteristics.) Viewed in this manner, the low-pressure anomaly moves over the mountains in a discontinuous manner. [large animated gif, small animated gif, or javascript animation]. It is hoped that techniques such as band-pass filtering will help operational forecasters follow the movement of the forcing through regions of complex topography.
We also perform a climatology of Alberta clippers and show that the overwhelming majority of these events (about 75%) are associated with Storm Data reports, thus indicating their potential for generating hazardous winter weather. This came as a surprise to me, since I always considered Alberta clippers to be relatively innocuous storms (too dry to dump a lot of snow and too weak to produce strong winds). Obviously these storms create lots of wind and heavy snow reports in the mountains and on the lee slopes (MT, WY, ID, Dakotas) that I never really appreciated before.
Finally, we show that this mobile pressure minimum (which is commonly analyzed on surface maps as an occluded or cold front due to continuity) is not a front and should not be analyzed as such. This feature is more akin to the feature termed a baroclinic trough by Fred Sanders, although we prefer the term nonfrontal trough, since these features may or may not be associated with baroclinity.
MANUSCRIPTS
My research on western United States weather has spawned other side projects such as conceptual models of upper-level frontogenesis, the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment, and lightning associated with lake-effect snowbands over the Great Salt Lake.
I have also lectured to the Storm Prediction Center on Selected Topics on the Synoptic and Mesoscale Weather of the Western United StatesSynoptic
If you have any further
questions about the research discussed here, or desire a manuscript,
please feel free to write to me: david.schultz@noaa.gov.
Return to
David Schultz's homepage.
