Table of Contents
The Damaging Downburst Prediction and Detection Algorithm (DDPDA)
Goal of the DDPDA
Some history
DDPDA:1996
DDPDA:1997
DDPDA:1998
DDPDA Review Outline
Downbursts: Fujita’s definition
Downbursts: Fujita’s definition
Lead time requirements
Lead time requirements
Lead time requirements
Physical basis
Downburst environments
Low-CAPE Downburst Sounding
High-CAPE Downburst Sounding
Downburst buoyancy profiles
Conceptual Model
Roberts and Wilson (1989)
Eilts et al (1996)
KIWA 8/5/93 2343 UTC
KIWA 8/5/93 2353 UTC
KIWA 8/6/93 0003 UTC
KIWA 8/6/93 0013 UTC
KIWA 8/6/93 0013 UTC
A low-reflectivity case
A low-reflectivity case
Data collection for DDPDA development and evaluation
Verification data (a.k.a. “ground truth”)
Verification data Collection process
Verification data Collection process (2)
Verification data Collection process (3)
Verification data Collection process (4)
Verification data Current Data Set
Verification data Current Data Set
Verification data Future Improvements
DDPDA Input Data Stream
Beam Resolution - VCP 11
Beam Resolution - VCP 11
Beam Resolution - VCP 21
DDPDA Input
Input from other algorithms
Input from other algorithms:SCIT
SCIT cell tracking
A SCIT tracking error
SCIT cell identification
Environmental Data
Radar-derived parameters
DDPDA Input: Reflectivity Data
DDPDA Input: Radial Velocity Parameters
DDPDA Input:Environmental Parameters
DDPDA Function
DDPDA Facts
DDPDA Facts
DDPDA function calls
Global variables
Global variables
“Beginning of volume” routines
“Radial” routines
“End of tilt” routines
“End of volume” routines
“End of tilt” routines
DDPDA velocity calculations
End of tilt: shear_calc_all
End of tilt: shear_calc_all
End of tilt: shear_calc_all
“End of tilt’ output
“End of tilt’ output
“End of tilt’ data combination
End of tilt: ddpda_scit_vel
End of tilt: ddpda_scit_vel struct tiltinfo - SCIT 2D information
End of tilt: ddpda_scit_vel struct tiltinfo - velocity information
End of tilt: ddpda_scit_vel calculation of velocity parameters
End of tilt: ddpda_scit_vel calculation of velocity parameters
End of tilt: ddpda_scit_vel calculation of velocity parameters
End of tilt: ddpda_scit_vel ?V calculations
End of tilt: ddpda_scit_vel ?V calculations (2)
End of tilt: ddpda_scit_vel “Area of convergence” calculations
“End of volume” routines
“End of volume’ data combination
End of volume: cell_build
End of volume: cell_build Collecting SCIT/HDA data
End of volume: cell_build Collecting SCIT/HDA data
End of volume: cell_build Data collection and storage
“End of volume’ data combination
End of volume: write_scit_timeht
End of volume: write_scit_timeht
End of volume: read_ddpda_env_data
Finally!
End of volume: ddpda_main
Output from ddpda_main
Output from ddpda_main
Downburst detection
Downburst prediction
Downburst prediction
DDPDA Input: Reflectivity Data
DDPDA Input: Radial Velocity Parameters
DDPDA Input:Environmental Parameters
Depth of convergence > 0.004 s-1 range = 30-80 km
Max Reflectivity above min ?e range = 30-80 km
Max Reflectivity above min ?e range = 80-150 km
Downburst prediction
Convergence (95th percentile) range < 30 km
Convergence (95th percentile) range > 80 km
Example Prediction Equation (Range > 80 km)
Downburst prediction
DDPDA testing and scoring
DDPDA testing and scoring
dBZ/H gust prediction technique
Skill scores
DDPDA testing and scoring
Predicting Dry Downbursts: Challenges
Predicting Dry Downbursts: Challenges
Predicting Dry Downbursts: Designing an algorithm approach
Upcoming Improvements
Upcoming Improvements
The future of the DDPDA
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